Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F24%3A100839" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/24:100839 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004053" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004053</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004053" target="_blank" >10.1029/2023EF004053</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right-tail of the rainfall distribution using a non-parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q0.99 of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non-extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100-year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Frequency Rather Than Intensity Drives Projected Changes of Rainfall Events in Brazil

Popis výsledku anglicky

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right-tail of the rainfall distribution using a non-parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q0.99 of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non-extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100-year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10500 - Earth and related environmental sciences

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Earths Future

ISSN

2328-4277

e-ISSN

2328-4277

Svazek periodika

12

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

1-15

Kód UT WoS článku

001148489500001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85183676044