An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F24%3A98643" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/24:98643 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024" target="_blank" >10.5194/hess-28-3755-2024</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Floods regularly cause substantial damage worldwide. Changing flood characteristics, e.g., due to climate change, pose challenges to flood risk management. The spatial extent of floods is an important indicator of potential impacts, as consequences of widespread floods are particularly difficult to mitigate. The highly uneven station distribution in space and time, however, limits the ability to quantify flood characteristics and, in particular, changes in flood extents over large regions. Here, we use observation-driven routed runoff simulations over the last 70 years in Europe from a state-of-the-art hydrological model (the mesoscale Hydrologic Model - mHM) to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events. Our identified spatiotemporal flood events compare well against an independent flood impact database. We find that flood extents increase by 11.3 % on average across Europe. This increase occurs over most of Europe, except for parts of eastern and southwestern Europe. Over northern Europe, the increase in flood extent is mainly driven by the overall increase in flood magnitude caused by increasing precipitation and snowmelt. In contrast, the increasing trend in flood extent over central Europe can be attributed to an increase in the spatial extent of heavy precipitation. Overall, our study illustrates the opportunities to combine long-term consistent regional runoff simulations with a spatiotemporal flood detection algorithm to identify large-scale trends in key flood characteristics and their drivers. The detected change in flood extent should be considered in risk assessments as it may challenge flood control and water resource management.

Název v anglickém jazyce

An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years

Popis výsledku anglicky

Floods regularly cause substantial damage worldwide. Changing flood characteristics, e.g., due to climate change, pose challenges to flood risk management. The spatial extent of floods is an important indicator of potential impacts, as consequences of widespread floods are particularly difficult to mitigate. The highly uneven station distribution in space and time, however, limits the ability to quantify flood characteristics and, in particular, changes in flood extents over large regions. Here, we use observation-driven routed runoff simulations over the last 70 years in Europe from a state-of-the-art hydrological model (the mesoscale Hydrologic Model - mHM) to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events. Our identified spatiotemporal flood events compare well against an independent flood impact database. We find that flood extents increase by 11.3 % on average across Europe. This increase occurs over most of Europe, except for parts of eastern and southwestern Europe. Over northern Europe, the increase in flood extent is mainly driven by the overall increase in flood magnitude caused by increasing precipitation and snowmelt. In contrast, the increasing trend in flood extent over central Europe can be attributed to an increase in the spatial extent of heavy precipitation. Overall, our study illustrates the opportunities to combine long-term consistent regional runoff simulations with a spatiotemporal flood detection algorithm to identify large-scale trends in key flood characteristics and their drivers. The detected change in flood extent should be considered in risk assessments as it may challenge flood control and water resource management.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

ISSN

1027-5606

e-ISSN

1027-5606

Svazek periodika

28

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

16

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

3755-3775

Kód UT WoS článku

001293634900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85202162794