Revisiting Ancient Forests: Insights From the Mid-Pliocene to Predict Future Climate Impacts

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A101927" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:101927 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15128" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15128</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jbi.15128" target="_blank" >10.1111/jbi.15128</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Revisiting Ancient Forests: Insights From the Mid-Pliocene to Predict Future Climate Impacts

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Aim: The potential analogues in Earth's past may hold insight on how modern European forests will react to different levels of future warming. There is a lack of comparison between future warming and its most recent climate analogue 3.25 million years ago during the mid-Piacenzian warm period. We have attempted to fill this knowledge gap by modelling the zonation of woody plant communities during the mid-Pliocene and comparing it with their current distribution and predictions of their future distribution. Location: Europe. Time Period3.25-3 million years ago, 1970-2000, and 2081-2100. Taxon: European tree species. Methods: In this study, we selected 15 European tree species from three main European forest ecosystems: Mediterranean, temperate and boreal species that had ancestors present in Europe during the mPWP. Then we applied an ensemble model using climatic data from the mPWP, modern and two future climate scenarios. In order to compare the models, we assessed the overlapped area as well as Dutilleul's modified t-test in order to assess the spatial similarities in forest communities distribution between the mPWP and future warming. Results: Our results showed that there is a clear northern trend in the northward shift of forest communities under all warming scenarios. Across all species, there is a clear drop in suitable area with the exception of Mediterranean species, where suitable area increased in all warm scenarios. When comparing the mPWP with future warming, there is evidence to support that RCP 4.5 will potentially exhibit similar conditions, while RCP 8.5 may result in highly novel habitats. Main Conclusions: Although mid-Pliocene conditions are more analogous to the RCP 4.5, it raises an urgent ecological concern for adaptive forest management. Increasing temperatures and uncertain precipitation patterns have the potential to aid the expansion of Mediterranean forest communities while fragmenting temperate and boreal forest communities throughout central Europe.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Revisiting Ancient Forests: Insights From the Mid-Pliocene to Predict Future Climate Impacts

Popis výsledku anglicky

Aim: The potential analogues in Earth's past may hold insight on how modern European forests will react to different levels of future warming. There is a lack of comparison between future warming and its most recent climate analogue 3.25 million years ago during the mid-Piacenzian warm period. We have attempted to fill this knowledge gap by modelling the zonation of woody plant communities during the mid-Pliocene and comparing it with their current distribution and predictions of their future distribution. Location: Europe. Time Period3.25-3 million years ago, 1970-2000, and 2081-2100. Taxon: European tree species. Methods: In this study, we selected 15 European tree species from three main European forest ecosystems: Mediterranean, temperate and boreal species that had ancestors present in Europe during the mPWP. Then we applied an ensemble model using climatic data from the mPWP, modern and two future climate scenarios. In order to compare the models, we assessed the overlapped area as well as Dutilleul's modified t-test in order to assess the spatial similarities in forest communities distribution between the mPWP and future warming. Results: Our results showed that there is a clear northern trend in the northward shift of forest communities under all warming scenarios. Across all species, there is a clear drop in suitable area with the exception of Mediterranean species, where suitable area increased in all warm scenarios. When comparing the mPWP with future warming, there is evidence to support that RCP 4.5 will potentially exhibit similar conditions, while RCP 8.5 may result in highly novel habitats. Main Conclusions: Although mid-Pliocene conditions are more analogous to the RCP 4.5, it raises an urgent ecological concern for adaptive forest management. Increasing temperatures and uncertain precipitation patterns have the potential to aid the expansion of Mediterranean forest communities while fragmenting temperate and boreal forest communities throughout central Europe.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA23-07716S" target="_blank" >GA23-07716S: Využití koncepce trade-off a funkčních znaků v moderní teorii druhové koexistence</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Biogeography

ISSN

0305-0270

e-ISSN

0305-0270

Svazek periodika

52

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

—

Kód UT WoS článku

001454337800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105001794376