Spatially and Seasonally Differentiated Response of Soil Moisture Droughts to Climate Change in Germany

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A102081" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:102081 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005495" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005495</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005495" target="_blank" >10.1029/2024EF005495</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Spatially and Seasonally Differentiated Response of Soil Moisture Droughts to Climate Change in Germany

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Global warming is altering soil moisture (SM) droughts in Europe with a strong drying trend projected in the Mediterranean and wetting trends projected in Scandinavia. Central Europe, including Germany, lies in a transitional zone showing weaker and diverging change signals exposing the region to uncertainties. The recent extreme drought years in Germany, which resulted in multi-sectoral impacts accounting to combined drought and heat damages of 35 billion Euros and large scale forest losses, underline the relevance of studying future changes in SM droughts. To analyze the projected SM drought changes and associated uncertainties in Germany, we utilize a large ensemble of 57 bias-adjusted and spatially disaggregated regional climate model simulations to run the hydrologic model mHM at a high spatial resolution of approximately 1.2 km. We show that projections of future changes in soil moisture droughts over Germany depend on the emission scenario, the soil depth and the timing during the vegetation growing period. Most robust and widespread increases in soil moisture drought intensities are projected for upper soil layers in the late growing season (July-September) under the high emission scenario. There are greater uncertainties in the changes in soil moisture droughts in the early vegetation growing period (April-June). We find stronger imprints of changes in meteorological drivers controlling the spatial disparities of SM droughts than regional diversity in physio-geographic landscape properties. Our study provides nuanced insights into SM drought changes for an important climatic transition zone and is therefore relevant for regions with similar transitions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Spatially and Seasonally Differentiated Response of Soil Moisture Droughts to Climate Change in Germany

Popis výsledku anglicky

Global warming is altering soil moisture (SM) droughts in Europe with a strong drying trend projected in the Mediterranean and wetting trends projected in Scandinavia. Central Europe, including Germany, lies in a transitional zone showing weaker and diverging change signals exposing the region to uncertainties. The recent extreme drought years in Germany, which resulted in multi-sectoral impacts accounting to combined drought and heat damages of 35 billion Euros and large scale forest losses, underline the relevance of studying future changes in SM droughts. To analyze the projected SM drought changes and associated uncertainties in Germany, we utilize a large ensemble of 57 bias-adjusted and spatially disaggregated regional climate model simulations to run the hydrologic model mHM at a high spatial resolution of approximately 1.2 km. We show that projections of future changes in soil moisture droughts over Germany depend on the emission scenario, the soil depth and the timing during the vegetation growing period. Most robust and widespread increases in soil moisture drought intensities are projected for upper soil layers in the late growing season (July-September) under the high emission scenario. There are greater uncertainties in the changes in soil moisture droughts in the early vegetation growing period (April-June). We find stronger imprints of changes in meteorological drivers controlling the spatial disparities of SM droughts than regional diversity in physio-geographic landscape properties. Our study provides nuanced insights into SM drought changes for an important climatic transition zone and is therefore relevant for regions with similar transitions.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Earths Future

ISSN

2328-4277

e-ISSN

2328-4277

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

5

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

1-18

Kód UT WoS článku

001484390300001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105004688379