How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A102084" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:102084 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9" target="_blank" >10.1007/s10584-025-03958-9</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study assesses projected changes in precipitation (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$P$$end{document}), discharge (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}), and soil moisture (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document})-based droughts in Ukraine using CMIP6 bias-corrected climate models and the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Despite model variability, results reveal substantial increases in documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}- and documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document}-droughts' duration and severity across all scenarios, with the most severe impacts under SSP5-8.5 in the end of the century. Specifically, for both drought types, 50-year extreme documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document}- and documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}-droughts are projected to be the norm by 2055, exhibiting at least a twofold increase in duration and severity by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$P$$end{document}-droughts, in contrast, are projected to show relatively modest increases in severity and duration. Beyond enhanced droughts, water availability is anticipated to decline across the country, further exacerbating Ukraine's water- and agriculture-related issues in a war-affected context. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management to secure Ukraine's agricultural sector-a cornerstone of regional and global food security-against the dual threats of drought intensification and the ongoing conflict.

Název v anglickém jazyce

How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study assesses projected changes in precipitation (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$P$$end{document}), discharge (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}), and soil moisture (documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document})-based droughts in Ukraine using CMIP6 bias-corrected climate models and the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Despite model variability, results reveal substantial increases in documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}- and documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document}-droughts' duration and severity across all scenarios, with the most severe impacts under SSP5-8.5 in the end of the century. Specifically, for both drought types, 50-year extreme documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$SM$$end{document}- and documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$Q$$end{document}-droughts are projected to be the norm by 2055, exhibiting at least a twofold increase in duration and severity by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$$P$$end{document}-droughts, in contrast, are projected to show relatively modest increases in severity and duration. Beyond enhanced droughts, water availability is anticipated to decline across the country, further exacerbating Ukraine's water- and agriculture-related issues in a war-affected context. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management to secure Ukraine's agricultural sector-a cornerstone of regional and global food security-against the dual threats of drought intensification and the ongoing conflict.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA23-08056S" target="_blank" >GA23-08056S: Sledování dynamiky vývoje suchých epizod a jejich klasifikace v globálním měřítku - DynamicDrought</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

CLIMATIC CHANGE

ISSN

0165-0009

e-ISSN

0165-0009

Svazek periodika

178

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

6

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

1-14

Kód UT WoS článku

001500441700001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105007011718