Increasing spatial extent and frequency of flash drought in Europe with each degree of global warming

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F60460709%3A41330%2F25%3A102106" target="_blank" >RIV/60460709:41330/25:102106 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8" target="_blank" >https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8" target="_blank" >10.1088/1748-9326/ae11c8</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Increasing spatial extent and frequency of flash drought in Europe with each degree of global warming

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Flash droughts, characterised by sudden and severe development of dry soil moisture conditions, have detrimental impacts on agriculture and ecosystems. Since reliable projections of any kind of drought are crucial for drought risk mitigation, studying how these flash droughts evolve as warming increases becomes essential. Herein, we analyse changes in flash drought frequency, geographic extent, and regional variability across Europe under incremental global warming levels of 1 °C, 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. Soil moisture simulations are obtained using the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), which has been forced with the bias-corrected meteorological data from ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3b). We use a percentile-based method to determine the rapid decline in soil moisture conditions during the growing season. Our results show that Northern and Central Europe are expected to see more frequent flash drought events at higher warming levels above 1.5 °C. As temperatures increase, new areas experience flash drought in Central Europe. In contrast, the increase in frequency and area is less in the Mediterranean. Across Europe, we expect the mean frequency of flash droughts to increase from around 3 events each decade at 1 °C to 5 events at 3 °C. The median value of the spatial area covered in flash drought is expected to increase from around 30% at 1 °C to close to 44% at 3 °C. Each degree of increase in warming is expected to add around one more flash drought event each decade and more than 6% of the area across Europe under flash drought. The threshold of 1.5 °C marks a significant increase in the area affected by flash droughts, highlighting the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement targets and adaptation measures to counter such flash drought conditions and safeguard the agricultural economy, food security, and ecosystems.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Increasing spatial extent and frequency of flash drought in Europe with each degree of global warming

Popis výsledku anglicky

Flash droughts, characterised by sudden and severe development of dry soil moisture conditions, have detrimental impacts on agriculture and ecosystems. Since reliable projections of any kind of drought are crucial for drought risk mitigation, studying how these flash droughts evolve as warming increases becomes essential. Herein, we analyse changes in flash drought frequency, geographic extent, and regional variability across Europe under incremental global warming levels of 1 °C, 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C. Soil moisture simulations are obtained using the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM), which has been forced with the bias-corrected meteorological data from ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3b). We use a percentile-based method to determine the rapid decline in soil moisture conditions during the growing season. Our results show that Northern and Central Europe are expected to see more frequent flash drought events at higher warming levels above 1.5 °C. As temperatures increase, new areas experience flash drought in Central Europe. In contrast, the increase in frequency and area is less in the Mediterranean. Across Europe, we expect the mean frequency of flash droughts to increase from around 3 events each decade at 1 °C to 5 events at 3 °C. The median value of the spatial area covered in flash drought is expected to increase from around 30% at 1 °C to close to 44% at 3 °C. Each degree of increase in warming is expected to add around one more flash drought event each decade and more than 6% of the area across Europe under flash drought. The threshold of 1.5 °C marks a significant increase in the area affected by flash droughts, highlighting the importance of adhering to the Paris Agreement targets and adaptation measures to counter such flash drought conditions and safeguard the agricultural economy, food security, and ecosystems.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA23-08056S" target="_blank" >GA23-08056S: Sledování dynamiky vývoje suchých epizod a jejich klasifikace v globálním měřítku - DynamicDrought</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)<br>S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Environmental Research Letters

ISSN

1748-9326

e-ISSN

1748-9326

Svazek periodika

20

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

1-12

Kód UT WoS článku

001599553900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105020671632