Photovoltaic Energy All-Day and Intra-Day Forecasting Using Node by Node Developed Polynomial Networks Forming PDE Models Based on the L-Transformation

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27240%2F21%3A10248191" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27240/21:10248191 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7581" target="_blank" >http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7581</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14227581" target="_blank" >10.3390/en14227581</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Photovoltaic Energy All-Day and Intra-Day Forecasting Using Node by Node Developed Polynomial Networks Forming PDE Models Based on the L-Transformation

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Forecasting Photovoltaic (PV) energy production, based on the last weather and power data only, can obtain acceptable prediction accuracy in short-time horizons. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems usually produce free forecasts of the local cloud amount each 6 h. These are considerably delayed by several hours and do not provide sufficient quality. A Differential Polynomial Neural Network (D-PNN) is a recent unconventional soft-computing technique that can model complex weather patterns. D-PNN expands the n-variable kth order Partial Differential Equation (PDE) into selected two-variable node PDEs of the first or second order. Their derivatives are easy to convert into the Laplace transforms and substitute using Operator Calculus (OC). D-PNN proves two-input nodes to insert their PDE components into its gradually expanded sum model. Its PDE representation allows for the variability and uncertainty of specific patterns in the surface layer. The proposed all-day single-model and intra-day several-step PV prediction schemes are compared and interpreted with differential and stochastic machine learning. The statistical models are evolved for the specific data time delay to predict the PV output in complete day sequences or specific hours. Spatial data from a larger territory and the initially recognized daily periods enable models to compute accurate predictions each day and compensate for unexpected pattern variations and different initial conditions. The optimal data samples, determined by the particular time shifts between the model inputs and output, are trained to predict the Clear Sky Index in the defined horizon.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Photovoltaic Energy All-Day and Intra-Day Forecasting Using Node by Node Developed Polynomial Networks Forming PDE Models Based on the L-Transformation

Popis výsledku anglicky

Forecasting Photovoltaic (PV) energy production, based on the last weather and power data only, can obtain acceptable prediction accuracy in short-time horizons. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems usually produce free forecasts of the local cloud amount each 6 h. These are considerably delayed by several hours and do not provide sufficient quality. A Differential Polynomial Neural Network (D-PNN) is a recent unconventional soft-computing technique that can model complex weather patterns. D-PNN expands the n-variable kth order Partial Differential Equation (PDE) into selected two-variable node PDEs of the first or second order. Their derivatives are easy to convert into the Laplace transforms and substitute using Operator Calculus (OC). D-PNN proves two-input nodes to insert their PDE components into its gradually expanded sum model. Its PDE representation allows for the variability and uncertainty of specific patterns in the surface layer. The proposed all-day single-model and intra-day several-step PV prediction schemes are compared and interpreted with differential and stochastic machine learning. The statistical models are evolved for the specific data time delay to predict the PV output in complete day sequences or specific hours. Spatial data from a larger territory and the initially recognized daily periods enable models to compute accurate predictions each day and compensate for unexpected pattern variations and different initial conditions. The optimal data samples, determined by the particular time shifts between the model inputs and output, are trained to predict the Clear Sky Index in the defined horizon.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Energies

ISSN

1996-1073

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

22

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

1-14

Kód UT WoS článku

000725498400001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85119328873