Stock Market Price Indices Modelling by a Small Scale Bayesian VAR: the case of British FTSE and German DAX index

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F16%3A86098050" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/16:86098050 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Stock Market Price Indices Modelling by a Small Scale Bayesian VAR: the case of British FTSE and German DAX index

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This article examines the behaviour and responses of stock market indices to various macroeconomic determinants by using small scale Bayesian VAR model. Our objective is to investigate the extent to which various macroeconomic shocks contribute to changes in stock market conditions. We focus on the German DAX 30 index and British FTSE 100 indices which serve as indicators for the development of the German and British economy as well as an illustration to evaluate the performance of the model. We have confirmed the general view that BVAR model outperforms a standard VAR model when the forecasting accuracy improved from 5% to 12%. We have also confirmed that any increase in risk-premium negatively influences stock markets in both case studies. However, the structure of the economies and capital also makes a difference, as found from different market reactions to supply shock.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Stock Market Price Indices Modelling by a Small Scale Bayesian VAR: the case of British FTSE and German DAX index

Popis výsledku anglicky

This article examines the behaviour and responses of stock market indices to various macroeconomic determinants by using small scale Bayesian VAR model. Our objective is to investigate the extent to which various macroeconomic shocks contribute to changes in stock market conditions. We focus on the German DAX 30 index and British FTSE 100 indices which serve as indicators for the development of the German and British economy as well as an illustration to evaluate the performance of the model. We have confirmed the general view that BVAR model outperforms a standard VAR model when the forecasting accuracy improved from 5% to 12%. We have also confirmed that any increase in risk-premium negatively influences stock markets in both case studies. However, the structure of the economies and capital also makes a difference, as found from different market reactions to supply shock.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

AH - Ekonomie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

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Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Ekonomický časopis

ISSN

0013-3035

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

64

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

8

Stát vydavatele periodika

SK - Slovenská republika

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

737-750

Kód UT WoS článku

000391517100002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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