The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989100%3A27510%2F22%3A10249823" target="_blank" >RIV/61989100:27510/22:10249823 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14560/22:00125370 RIV/00216208:11230/22:10454269

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S157230892200002X" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S157230892200002X</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.100973" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.jfs.2022.100973</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We examine whether household sentiment can explain fluctuations in newly issued consumer loans. We construct a novel measure of household sentiment using detailed data from the harmonized consumer surveys conducted in European countries. We differentiate between rational sentiment, which mimics dynamics in macroeconomic fundamentals, and irrational sentiment, which proxies households&apos; optimism/pessimism on top of their rationally sourced beliefs. We show that shocks to the sentiment of households do have a measurable impact on growth of consumer loans. Specifically, we assert a significantly positive role of irrational sentiment on top of the economic fundamentals identified in the literature. Moreover, a closer examination reveals that the studied relationship is not symmetric over the business cycle - the effect of irrational sentiment is present only in periods in which a country&apos;s output is well above its potential.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics

Popis výsledku anglicky

We examine whether household sentiment can explain fluctuations in newly issued consumer loans. We construct a novel measure of household sentiment using detailed data from the harmonized consumer surveys conducted in European countries. We differentiate between rational sentiment, which mimics dynamics in macroeconomic fundamentals, and irrational sentiment, which proxies households&apos; optimism/pessimism on top of their rationally sourced beliefs. We show that shocks to the sentiment of households do have a measurable impact on growth of consumer loans. Specifically, we assert a significantly positive role of irrational sentiment on top of the economic fundamentals identified in the literature. Moreover, a closer examination reveals that the studied relationship is not symmetric over the business cycle - the effect of irrational sentiment is present only in periods in which a country&apos;s output is well above its potential.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50200 - Economics and Business

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA19-19485S" target="_blank" >GA19-19485S: Prostorová dynamika a nerovnost: Role konektivity a přístupu k financím</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of Financial Stability

ISSN

1572-3089

e-ISSN

1878-0962

Svazek periodika

59

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

April

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

"Article Number 100973"

Kód UT WoS článku

000781270000002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85124005294