Two Fagan nomograms for the (genetic) evidence in a judicial context

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989592%3A15110%2F14%3A33151126" target="_blank" >RIV/61989592:15110/14:33151126 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00450618.2013.828099" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00450618.2013.828099</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00450618.2013.828099" target="_blank" >10.1080/00450618.2013.828099</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Two Fagan nomograms for the (genetic) evidence in a judicial context

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

While there are many computer programs that derive the likelihood ratio for genetic and other types of evidence, the Bayesian method of combination of prior probability coupled with the likelihood ratio, used by courts to ascertain posterior probability,has less support from software and other practical aids. Without proper instructions to a court, Bayes' rule is either applied subconsciously by the judge, or prior probability is, by default, assigned a flat 50% probability by a forensic expert. In theworst case, it can be interpreted wrongly. A graphical representation using a nomogram is a proven way of representing Bayes' theorem but remains underused in the field of forensics and the law. For this paper, I used the freeware package PyNomo to prepare two simple forensic nomograms allowing the graphical calculation of posterior probability by increasing or decreasing the prior probability due to evidence.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Two Fagan nomograms for the (genetic) evidence in a judicial context

Popis výsledku anglicky

While there are many computer programs that derive the likelihood ratio for genetic and other types of evidence, the Bayesian method of combination of prior probability coupled with the likelihood ratio, used by courts to ascertain posterior probability,has less support from software and other practical aids. Without proper instructions to a court, Bayes' rule is either applied subconsciously by the judge, or prior probability is, by default, assigned a flat 50% probability by a forensic expert. In theworst case, it can be interpreted wrongly. A graphical representation using a nomogram is a proven way of representing Bayes' theorem but remains underused in the field of forensics and the law. For this paper, I used the freeware package PyNomo to prepare two simple forensic nomograms allowing the graphical calculation of posterior probability by increasing or decreasing the prior probability due to evidence.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

EB - Genetika a molekulární biologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF FORENSIC SCIENCES

ISSN

0045-0618

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

46

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

266-271

Kód UT WoS článku

000340245400004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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