Prediction of Land-use Development under Influence of Climate Change

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F61989592%3A15310%2F17%3A73581120" target="_blank" >RIV/61989592:15310/17:73581120 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/61989592:15310/18:73589874

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25" target="_blank" >10.1007/978-3-319-61297-3_25</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Prediction of Land-use Development under Influence of Climate Change

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Land-use change is considered as one of the most critical processes when attempting to understand and model global change. Climatic change in the Czech Republic incurs a substantial pressure on human society and natural ecosystems through the increase of temperature and higher occurrence of droughts and floods. The principal purpose of the study was to model and assess the future land-use distribution in the Czech Republic based on historical land-use data and climate change information. For assessment of future ecosystem services, the current rate of ecosystem service fulfillment is set and compared in time and space with modeled situations according to two weather scenarios. TerrSet’s Land Change Modeller was used as a tool to create the models based on principles of historical trends and predict the future land coverage for each category and location. The outputs of the land-use prediction modeling were maps that reflected business as usual scenario. After creating the models, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed to determine the difference in representation of each land cover category for a period 2012-2050. The land use prediction is demonstrated for the entire Czech Republic using HadGEM2-ES climate model with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that most severe and substantial change in the land cover appears in considerable loss of agricultural sites mainly caused by urbanization. Planners and policymakers should incorporate adaptation measures including the change of land use to more natural habitats and more ecological management of agricultural and forest soils to mitigate the adverse effect of urbanization and climate change. The contribution of the study is in presenting selected tools for modeling expected future land use and development of maps displaying future spatial distribution and quantification of particular land use categories for the Czech Republic.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Prediction of Land-use Development under Influence of Climate Change

Popis výsledku anglicky

Land-use change is considered as one of the most critical processes when attempting to understand and model global change. Climatic change in the Czech Republic incurs a substantial pressure on human society and natural ecosystems through the increase of temperature and higher occurrence of droughts and floods. The principal purpose of the study was to model and assess the future land-use distribution in the Czech Republic based on historical land-use data and climate change information. For assessment of future ecosystem services, the current rate of ecosystem service fulfillment is set and compared in time and space with modeled situations according to two weather scenarios. TerrSet’s Land Change Modeller was used as a tool to create the models based on principles of historical trends and predict the future land coverage for each category and location. The outputs of the land-use prediction modeling were maps that reflected business as usual scenario. After creating the models, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed to determine the difference in representation of each land cover category for a period 2012-2050. The land use prediction is demonstrated for the entire Czech Republic using HadGEM2-ES climate model with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that most severe and substantial change in the land cover appears in considerable loss of agricultural sites mainly caused by urbanization. Planners and policymakers should incorporate adaptation measures including the change of land use to more natural habitats and more ecological management of agricultural and forest soils to mitigate the adverse effect of urbanization and climate change. The contribution of the study is in presenting selected tools for modeling expected future land use and development of maps displaying future spatial distribution and quantification of particular land use categories for the Czech Republic.

Druh

C - Kapitola v odborné knize

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50701 - Cultural and economic geography

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název knihy nebo sborníku

Dynamics in GIscience

ISBN

978-3-319-61296-6

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

347-358

Počet stran knihy

424

Název nakladatele

Springer International Publishnih AG

Místo vydání

Cham

Kód UT WoS kapitoly

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