Prediction of oil depletion in Ghana based on Hubbert's model
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F16%3A43908354" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/16:43908354 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="http://acta.mendelu.cz/media/pdf/actaun_2016064010325.pdf" target="_blank" >http://acta.mendelu.cz/media/pdf/actaun_2016064010325.pdf</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664010325" target="_blank" >10.11118/actaun201664010325</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Prediction of oil depletion in Ghana based on Hubbert's model
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
This study seeks to fulfil four specific tasks: to predict the year of peak oil production in Ghana, to estimate the quantity that will be produced at this peak point, to investigate the year of total oil depletion and last but not the least is to assess the total recoverable oil resources at the point of depletion. The study applied Hubbert's model of oil production and depletion. There was however modification to the approach in that Nonlinear Least Squares were used to estimate the logistic growth parameter instead of linear regression techniques. The modification was due to the fact that the historical data of oil production in Ghana did not follow a linear trend. The study acknowledges the influence of technology, economic, and political factors in the shorter time scales but hypothesizes that the amount of recoverable oil resources dominates all other factors in the long run. Hence the focus was placed on physical or geological constraints. The study results show that peak production in Ghana will occur in 2022. A maximum of about 100 million barrels will be produced per year though currently the annual production is about 40 million barrels. The predicted logistic curve also shows that total oil will be depleted by 2060. Ghana has total recoverable oil resources of about 1.8 billion. The data for the study was obtained from the U.S Energy Information Administration covers the period of production from 1992 to 2014.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Prediction of oil depletion in Ghana based on Hubbert's model
Popis výsledku anglicky
This study seeks to fulfil four specific tasks: to predict the year of peak oil production in Ghana, to estimate the quantity that will be produced at this peak point, to investigate the year of total oil depletion and last but not the least is to assess the total recoverable oil resources at the point of depletion. The study applied Hubbert's model of oil production and depletion. There was however modification to the approach in that Nonlinear Least Squares were used to estimate the logistic growth parameter instead of linear regression techniques. The modification was due to the fact that the historical data of oil production in Ghana did not follow a linear trend. The study acknowledges the influence of technology, economic, and political factors in the shorter time scales but hypothesizes that the amount of recoverable oil resources dominates all other factors in the long run. Hence the focus was placed on physical or geological constraints. The study results show that peak production in Ghana will occur in 2022. A maximum of about 100 million barrels will be produced per year though currently the annual production is about 40 million barrels. The predicted logistic curve also shows that total oil will be depleted by 2060. Ghana has total recoverable oil resources of about 1.8 billion. The data for the study was obtained from the U.S Energy Information Administration covers the period of production from 1992 to 2014.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>x</sub> - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)
CEP obor
BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum
OECD FORD obor
—
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
—
Návaznosti
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2016
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis
ISSN
1211-8516
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
64
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
1
Stát vydavatele periodika
CZ - Česká republika
Počet stran výsledku
7
Strana od-do
325-331
Kód UT WoS článku
—
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-84960100983