Life Cycle Cost Analysis in investment projects – Examination of case studies and risk mitigation with Monte Carlo Simulation

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62156489%3A43110%2F25%3A43926175" target="_blank" >RIV/62156489:43110/25:43926175 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.22630/srees.9798" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.22630/srees.9798</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/srees.9798" target="_blank" >10.22630/srees.9798</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Life Cycle Cost Analysis in investment projects – Examination of case studies and risk mitigation with Monte Carlo Simulation

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This work focuses on life cycle cost (LCC) analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure and recommends strategies to mitigate the uncertainties and risks involved using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It deals with the impact of input data and predicting the future development of input data on the results of the LCC analysis and discusses MCS for risk mitigation. Seven case studies for investments in Germany&apos;s natural gas infrastructure are analyzed. In addition to the executed case studies, a case study from a scientific journal is included. The case studies were conducted between 2005 and 2015. Evaluation with real historical input data shows that the results of an LCC analysis depend on the reliability of input data and predictions on their development. The retrospective view shows that the best options are not always identified. Therefore, the results need to be validated using risk-mitigation methods, such as MCS. The executed case studies reflect the opinions of experts. This work shows how risk is mitigated through MCS while focusing on LCC analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure; however, the proposed risk mitigation with MCS can be adopted for other investment projects comprising capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX), for example, in construction, machines and other fields.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Life Cycle Cost Analysis in investment projects – Examination of case studies and risk mitigation with Monte Carlo Simulation

Popis výsledku anglicky

This work focuses on life cycle cost (LCC) analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure and recommends strategies to mitigate the uncertainties and risks involved using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It deals with the impact of input data and predicting the future development of input data on the results of the LCC analysis and discusses MCS for risk mitigation. Seven case studies for investments in Germany&apos;s natural gas infrastructure are analyzed. In addition to the executed case studies, a case study from a scientific journal is included. The case studies were conducted between 2005 and 2015. Evaluation with real historical input data shows that the results of an LCC analysis depend on the reliability of input data and predictions on their development. The retrospective view shows that the best options are not always identified. Therefore, the results need to be validated using risk-mitigation methods, such as MCS. The executed case studies reflect the opinions of experts. This work shows how risk is mitigated through MCS while focusing on LCC analysis in the German natural gas infrastructure; however, the proposed risk mitigation with MCS can be adopted for other investment projects comprising capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX), for example, in construction, machines and other fields.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Przegląd Naukowy - Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska

ISSN

1732-9353

e-ISSN

2543-7496

Svazek periodika

34

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

PL - Polská republika

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

3-18

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105002495074