The blank ballot crisis: a multi-method study of fraud in the 2006 Italian election

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18460%2F21%3A50018269" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18460/21:50018269 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23248823.2021.1955190?journalCode=rita20" target="_blank" >https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23248823.2021.1955190?journalCode=rita20</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23248823.2021.1955190" target="_blank" >10.1080/23248823.2021.1955190</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The blank ballot crisis: a multi-method study of fraud in the 2006 Italian election

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Among European democracies, Italian elections have usually seen high levels of protest voting. Then in the 2006 election the number of blank ballots suddenly dropped by one million following the adoption of a new electoral system. This unprecedented change in electoral behaviour, and a margin of victory of 25,000 votes, raised suspicions of electoral fraud. Given that electoral fraud is more commonly associated with voter turnout than with protest voting, it is surprising that the academic literature has neglected this election. A lack of statistical assessment makes this unforeseen event exceptionally suited to the elaboration of a more universal approach to the investigation of voter fraud. For this purpose, this study applies a combination of Benford’s law, distributional tests and regression modelling to the Italian data. Three levels of disaggregation along regional and partisan lines are used to increase the homogeneity in the data. The results are compelling, showing widespread statistical anomalies in the 2006 election, and effect sizes large enough to alter the political outcome. This article concludes that the possibility of regional-level fraud cannot be ruled out, and that the evidence supplements the scholarly work on electoral manipulation in democracies.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The blank ballot crisis: a multi-method study of fraud in the 2006 Italian election

Popis výsledku anglicky

Among European democracies, Italian elections have usually seen high levels of protest voting. Then in the 2006 election the number of blank ballots suddenly dropped by one million following the adoption of a new electoral system. This unprecedented change in electoral behaviour, and a margin of victory of 25,000 votes, raised suspicions of electoral fraud. Given that electoral fraud is more commonly associated with voter turnout than with protest voting, it is surprising that the academic literature has neglected this election. A lack of statistical assessment makes this unforeseen event exceptionally suited to the elaboration of a more universal approach to the investigation of voter fraud. For this purpose, this study applies a combination of Benford’s law, distributional tests and regression modelling to the Italian data. Three levels of disaggregation along regional and partisan lines are used to increase the homogeneity in the data. The results are compelling, showing widespread statistical anomalies in the 2006 election, and effect sizes large enough to alter the political outcome. This article concludes that the possibility of regional-level fraud cannot be ruled out, and that the evidence supplements the scholarly work on electoral manipulation in democracies.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50601 - Political science

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Contemporary Italian Politics

ISSN

2324-8823

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

30

Strana od-do

352-381

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85111827288