NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE GLOBALIZED WORLD

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F62690094%3A18470%2F16%3A50015032" target="_blank" >RIV/62690094:18470/16:50015032 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://ke.uniza.sk/en/conference" target="_blank" >https://ke.uniza.sk/en/conference</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE GLOBALIZED WORLD

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In the present complex and globalized world, often classical linear prediction methods fail, so it is necessary to look for other methods. We deal with approaches based on chaos theory and we focus on nonlinear prediction. The goal of this paper is to analyse the gross domestic product (GDP) and to find chaos in the GDP growth rate time series. At the beginning of our analysis we must deal with the fundamental question regarding the existence of deterministic chaos. We estimated the time delay and the embedding dimension, which is needed for the Lyapunov exponent estimation and for the phase space reconstruction. Subsequently, we computed the largest Lyapunov exponent, which is one of the important indicators of chaos. The results indicated that chaotic behaviors obviously exist in GDP. If the system behaves chaotically, we are forced to accept limited predictions. Deterministic chaos, usually referred to simply as chaos, indicates presence of structure and often very complex order on a global scale but absence of these characteristics on a local scale. In general, chaotic processes can be characterized by irregular and long-telin unpredictable behavior, but this behavior is purely deterministic. Finally we computed predictions using a radial basis function to fit global nonlinear functions to the data.

Název v anglickém jazyce

NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE GLOBALIZED WORLD

Popis výsledku anglicky

In the present complex and globalized world, often classical linear prediction methods fail, so it is necessary to look for other methods. We deal with approaches based on chaos theory and we focus on nonlinear prediction. The goal of this paper is to analyse the gross domestic product (GDP) and to find chaos in the GDP growth rate time series. At the beginning of our analysis we must deal with the fundamental question regarding the existence of deterministic chaos. We estimated the time delay and the embedding dimension, which is needed for the Lyapunov exponent estimation and for the phase space reconstruction. Subsequently, we computed the largest Lyapunov exponent, which is one of the important indicators of chaos. The results indicated that chaotic behaviors obviously exist in GDP. If the system behaves chaotically, we are forced to accept limited predictions. Deterministic chaos, usually referred to simply as chaos, indicates presence of structure and often very complex order on a global scale but absence of these characteristics on a local scale. In general, chaotic processes can be characterized by irregular and long-telin unpredictable behavior, but this behavior is purely deterministic. Finally we computed predictions using a radial basis function to fit global nonlinear functions to the data.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

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Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

Globalization and Its Socio-Economic Consequences

ISBN

978-80-8154-191-9

ISSN

2454-0943

e-ISSN

neuvedeno

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

1069-1076

Název nakladatele

ZU - UNIVERSITY OF ZILINA

Místo vydání

Žilina

Místo konání akce

Rajecke Teplice

Datum konání akce

5. 10. 2016

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000393253800133