Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67179843%3A_____%2F10%3A00356797" target="_blank" >RIV/67179843:_____/10:00356797 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

Popis výsledku anglicky

The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

EH - Ekologie – společenstva

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LC06073" target="_blank" >LC06073: Centrum pro výzkum biodiverzity</a><br>

Návaznosti

Z - Vyzkumny zamer (s odkazem do CEZ)

Rok uplatnění

2010

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Biodiversity and Conservation

ISSN

0960-3115

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

19

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

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Kód UT WoS článku

000274330800003

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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