The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985530%3A_____%2F19%3A00520679" target="_blank" >RIV/67985530:_____/19:00520679 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/68378289:_____/19:00501364 RIV/68378289:_____/19:00517890 RIV/86652079:_____/19:00517890 RIV/60460709:41330/19:79732

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-019-01684-3" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-019-01684-3</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01684-3" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00484-019-01684-3</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We compared selected thermal indices in their ability to predict heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during the extraordinary summer 2015. Relatively, novel thermal indicesUniversal Thermal Climate Index and Excess Heat Factor (EHF)were compared with more traditional ones (apparent temperature, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), and physiologically equivalent temperature). The relationships between thermal indices and all-cause relative mortality deviations from the baseline (excess mortality) were estimated by generalized additive models for the extended summer season (May-September) during 1994-2014. The resulting models were applied to predict excess mortality in 2015 based on observed meteorology, and the mortality estimates by different indices were compared. Although all predictors showed a clear association between thermal conditions and excess mortality, we found important variability in their performance. The EHF formula performed best in estimating the intensity of heat waves and magnitude of heat-impacts on excess mortality on the most extreme days. Afternoon WBGT, on the other hand, was most precise in the selection of heat-alert days during the extended summer season, mainly due to a relatively small number of false alerts compared to other predictors. Since the main purpose of heat warning systems is identification of days with an increased risk of heat-related death rather than prediction of exact magnitude of the excess mortality, WBGT seemed to be a slightly favorable predictor for such a system.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices

Popis výsledku anglicky

We compared selected thermal indices in their ability to predict heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during the extraordinary summer 2015. Relatively, novel thermal indicesUniversal Thermal Climate Index and Excess Heat Factor (EHF)were compared with more traditional ones (apparent temperature, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), and physiologically equivalent temperature). The relationships between thermal indices and all-cause relative mortality deviations from the baseline (excess mortality) were estimated by generalized additive models for the extended summer season (May-September) during 1994-2014. The resulting models were applied to predict excess mortality in 2015 based on observed meteorology, and the mortality estimates by different indices were compared. Although all predictors showed a clear association between thermal conditions and excess mortality, we found important variability in their performance. The EHF formula performed best in estimating the intensity of heat waves and magnitude of heat-impacts on excess mortality on the most extreme days. Afternoon WBGT, on the other hand, was most precise in the selection of heat-alert days during the extended summer season, mainly due to a relatively small number of false alerts compared to other predictors. Since the main purpose of heat warning systems is identification of days with an increased risk of heat-related death rather than prediction of exact magnitude of the excess mortality, WBGT seemed to be a slightly favorable predictor for such a system.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA18-22125S" target="_blank" >GA18-22125S: Modelování vztahů mezi počasím a lidským zdravím</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

International Journal of Biometeorology

ISSN

0020-7128

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

63

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

535-548

Kód UT WoS článku

000462612800010

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85061319125