Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F14%3A00424720" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/14:00424720 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.005" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.005</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.005" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.005</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Variouslogistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-boxforecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shadi

Název v anglickém jazyce

Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

Popis výsledku anglicky

The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Variouslogistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-boxforecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shadi

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LD12009" target="_blank" >LD12009: Pokročilé metody pro predikci výroby elektrické energie z fotovoltaických systémů s využitím numerických modelů počasí s vysokým prostorovým i časovým rozlišením</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2014

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Solar Energy

ISSN

0038-092X

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

101

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

March

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

272-282

Kód UT WoS článku

000331921800028

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

—