Analysis of Meteorological Effects on the Incidence of Tick-borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a Thirty-year Period

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F17%3A00473776" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/17:00473776 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/75010330:_____/17:00011721

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15761/VRR.1000103" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.15761/VRR.1000103</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.15761/VRR.1000103" target="_blank" >10.15761/VRR.1000103</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Analysis of Meteorological Effects on the Incidence of Tick-borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a Thirty-year Period

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The goal is to analyse the effect of climatic factors on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in three adjacent, high-incidence regions of the Czech Republic (CZ) that differed considerably in the baseline incidence and in the timing of high incidence period. The basis for the analysis were the meteorological data from a 30-year database (1982-2011) of daily air temperature and precipitation measurements and time-matched reports of TBE cases defined by the onset of symptoms. A semi-parametric Poisson regression model revealed a statistically significant relationship between the average daily ambient air temperature and incidence of TBE. The shapes of the dependence were similar in all three regions under study. The analysis of the available data did not show a statistically significant relationship between the precipitation amount and incidence of TBE. Other statistically significant predictors were the trend over calendar years, monthly seasonality and trend-seasonality interaction (the shape of the monthly seasonality varies over years), and day of week. The climate changes had differentiated effects on TBE increase depending on the local environmental conditions as can be illustrated by the variations between the three regions not only in the TBE incidence level but also in the shape of the trend over years.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Analysis of Meteorological Effects on the Incidence of Tick-borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a Thirty-year Period

Popis výsledku anglicky

The goal is to analyse the effect of climatic factors on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in three adjacent, high-incidence regions of the Czech Republic (CZ) that differed considerably in the baseline incidence and in the timing of high incidence period. The basis for the analysis were the meteorological data from a 30-year database (1982-2011) of daily air temperature and precipitation measurements and time-matched reports of TBE cases defined by the onset of symptoms. A semi-parametric Poisson regression model revealed a statistically significant relationship between the average daily ambient air temperature and incidence of TBE. The shapes of the dependence were similar in all three regions under study. The analysis of the available data did not show a statistically significant relationship between the precipitation amount and incidence of TBE. Other statistically significant predictors were the trend over calendar years, monthly seasonality and trend-seasonality interaction (the shape of the monthly seasonality varies over years), and day of week. The climate changes had differentiated effects on TBE increase depending on the local environmental conditions as can be illustrated by the variations between the three regions not only in the TBE incidence level but also in the shape of the trend over years.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10103 - Statistics and probability

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/NT11425" target="_blank" >NT11425: Mapování přírodních ohnisek zoonóz přenosných na člověka v ČR a jejich změny ovlivněné modifikacemi klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2017

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Virology: Research & Reviews

ISSN

2514-4138

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

1

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

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Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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