Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985807%3A_____%2F18%3A00489444" target="_blank" >RIV/67985807:_____/18:00489444 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4936" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4936</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a4936" target="_blank" >10.21101/cejph.a4936</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to explore the patterns of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates over the past almost 50 years (1968-2014) in the Czech Republic, and to predict the mortality rates in 2015-2019. METHODS: The number of deaths from CHD and the population size were stratified by sex and age. The mortality rates were age-standardized to European population. Their values in 2015-2019 were estimated using the joinpoint log-linear regression, local log-linear regression and negative binomial log-linear regression, separately for males and females. RESULTS: A positive change in the trend of the age-standardized mortality rates from CHD was detected after the collapse of communism in 1989. In 1991-2000, the mortality trend was sharply downward, with an annual percent change of -5.8 % for males and -5.2 % for females. In 2000-2014, the decreasing trend was not so sharp (-1.3 % for males and -0.7% for females), yet it should continue in 2015-2019. The crude mortality rates for females are slightly higher than those for males since 2007, however, they are increasing for both sexes. The mortality rates are rising mainly in the age group of 85+ years (in 2014, 25.4% of CHD deaths of males and 54.4% of females occurred at the age of 85+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized mortality rates are predicted to decrease in 2015-2019, but the crude mortality rates should increase due to increase in average life expectancy. The burden of deaths is moving to the age group of 85 years and older, mainly in females. A total of 26,039 CHD deaths were registered in the Czech Republic in 2014, and 29,653 are predicted for 2019, if the current trends continue.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014

Popis výsledku anglicky

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to explore the patterns of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates over the past almost 50 years (1968-2014) in the Czech Republic, and to predict the mortality rates in 2015-2019. METHODS: The number of deaths from CHD and the population size were stratified by sex and age. The mortality rates were age-standardized to European population. Their values in 2015-2019 were estimated using the joinpoint log-linear regression, local log-linear regression and negative binomial log-linear regression, separately for males and females. RESULTS: A positive change in the trend of the age-standardized mortality rates from CHD was detected after the collapse of communism in 1989. In 1991-2000, the mortality trend was sharply downward, with an annual percent change of -5.8 % for males and -5.2 % for females. In 2000-2014, the decreasing trend was not so sharp (-1.3 % for males and -0.7% for females), yet it should continue in 2015-2019. The crude mortality rates for females are slightly higher than those for males since 2007, however, they are increasing for both sexes. The mortality rates are rising mainly in the age group of 85+ years (in 2014, 25.4% of CHD deaths of males and 54.4% of females occurred at the age of 85+ years). CONCLUSIONS: The age-standardized mortality rates are predicted to decrease in 2015-2019, but the crude mortality rates should increase due to increase in average life expectancy. The burden of deaths is moving to the age group of 85 years and older, mainly in females. A total of 26,039 CHD deaths were registered in the Czech Republic in 2014, and 29,653 are predicted for 2019, if the current trends continue.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10102 - Applied mathematics

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Central European Journal of Public Health

ISSN

1210-7778

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

26

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

10-15

Kód UT WoS článku

000432850200002

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85046746944