Anticipating the DART Impact: Orbit Estimation of Dimorphos Using a Simplified Model

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985815%3A_____%2F22%3A00563026" target="_blank" >RIV/67985815:_____/22:00563026 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0335115" target="_blank" >https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0335115</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac91c0" target="_blank" >10.3847/PSJ/ac91c0</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Anticipating the DART Impact: Orbit Estimation of Dimorphos Using a Simplified Model

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We used the times of occultations and eclipses between the components of the 65803 Didymos binary system observed in its light curves from 2003 to 2021 to estimate the orbital parameters of Dimorphos relative to Didymos. We employed a weighted least-squares approach and a modified Keplerian orbit model in order to accommodate the effects from nongravitational forces such as binary YORP that could cause a linear change in mean motion over time. We estimate that the period of the mutual orbit at the epoch 2022 September 26.0 TDB, the day of the DART impact, is 11.921 487 ± 0.000028 hr (1σ) and that the mean motion of the orbit is changing at a rate of (5.0 ± 1.0) × 10-18 rad s-2 (1σ). The formal 3σ uncertainty in orbital phase of Dimorphos during the planned Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is 5.°4. Observations from 2022 July to September, a few months to days prior to the DART impact, should provide modest improvements to the orbital phase uncertainty and reduce it to about 4.°2. These results, generated using a relatively simple model, are consistent with those generated using the more sophisticated model of Scheirich & Pravec, which demonstrates the reliability of our method and adds confidence to these mission-critical results.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Anticipating the DART Impact: Orbit Estimation of Dimorphos Using a Simplified Model

Popis výsledku anglicky

We used the times of occultations and eclipses between the components of the 65803 Didymos binary system observed in its light curves from 2003 to 2021 to estimate the orbital parameters of Dimorphos relative to Didymos. We employed a weighted least-squares approach and a modified Keplerian orbit model in order to accommodate the effects from nongravitational forces such as binary YORP that could cause a linear change in mean motion over time. We estimate that the period of the mutual orbit at the epoch 2022 September 26.0 TDB, the day of the DART impact, is 11.921 487 ± 0.000028 hr (1σ) and that the mean motion of the orbit is changing at a rate of (5.0 ± 1.0) × 10-18 rad s-2 (1σ). The formal 3σ uncertainty in orbital phase of Dimorphos during the planned Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is 5.°4. Observations from 2022 July to September, a few months to days prior to the DART impact, should provide modest improvements to the orbital phase uncertainty and reduce it to about 4.°2. These results, generated using a relatively simple model, are consistent with those generated using the more sophisticated model of Scheirich & Pravec, which demonstrates the reliability of our method and adds confidence to these mission-critical results.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10308 - Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA20-04431S" target="_blank" >GA20-04431S: Fyzikální a dynamické vlastnosti asteroidů cílených kosmickými sondami, a jejich evoluční dráhy</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

The Planetary Science Journal

ISSN

2632-3338

e-ISSN

2632-3338

Svazek periodika

3

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

10

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

8

Strana od-do

234

Kód UT WoS článku

000912976000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85142250988