Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985874%3A_____%2F23%3A00563183" target="_blank" >RIV/67985874:_____/23:00563183 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/23:10449351 RIV/60460709:41320/23:96962

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.16470" target="_blank" >https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.16470</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16470" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.16470</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing bi-ases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree- ring width chronolo-gies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the dis-tribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four nu-merical models (linear vs. non- linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The de-gree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry spe-cies distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly- resolved non- linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phe-nomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and meth-odological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non- stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Popis výsledku anglicky

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing bi-ases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree- ring width chronolo-gies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the dis-tribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four nu-merical models (linear vs. non- linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The de-gree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry spe-cies distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly- resolved non- linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phe-nomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and meth-odological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non- stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10501 - Hydrology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA19-13807S" target="_blank" >GA19-13807S: Snižuje rostoucí koncentrace CO2 citlivost evropských temperátních jehličnanů vůči suchu?</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Global Change Biology

ISSN

1354-1013

e-ISSN

1365-2486

Svazek periodika

29

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

2

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

15

Strana od-do

462-476

Kód UT WoS článku

000870547100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85140119318