Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F20%3A00533344" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/20:00533344 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41320/20:84729 RIV/00216208:11310/20:10422289

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199" target="_blank" >10.1111/gcb.15199</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socioeconomic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions - transport, climate change and socio-economic change - were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a bestcase scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment

Popis výsledku anglicky

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socioeconomic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions - transport, climate change and socio-economic change - were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a bestcase scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Global Change Biology

ISSN

1354-1013

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

26

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

4880-4893

Kód UT WoS článku

000548118200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85087841318