Dynamic Species Distribution Modeling Reveals the Pivotal Role of Human-Mediated Long-Distance Dispersal in Plant Invasion

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F67985939%3A_____%2F22%3A00561636" target="_blank" >RIV/67985939:_____/22:00561636 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/biology11091293" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.3390/biology11091293</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology11091293" target="_blank" >10.3390/biology11091293</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Dynamic Species Distribution Modeling Reveals the Pivotal Role of Human-Mediated Long-Distance Dispersal in Plant Invasion

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We use Bayesian dynamic species distribution models to explore the roles of long-distance dispersal and age-structured fecundity in the transient invasion dynamics of Plectranthus barbatus, a woody plant invader in South Africa. Our lattice-based model accounts for both short and human-mediated long-distance dispersal, as well as age-structured fecundity. We fitted our model on opportunistic occurrences, accounting for the spatio-temporal variations of the sampling effort and the variable detection rates across datasets. The Bayesian framework enables us to integrate a priori knowledge on demographic parameters and control identifiability issues. The model revealed a massive wave of spatial spread driven by human-mediated long-distance dispersal during the first decade and a subsequent drastic population growth, leading to a global equilibrium in the mid-1990s. Without long-distance dispersal, the maximum population would have been equivalent to 30% of the current equilibrium population. We further identified the reproductive maturity at three years old, which contributed to the lag phase before the final wave of population growth. Our results highlighted the importance of the early eradication of weedy horticultural alien plants around urban areas to hamper and delay the invasive spread.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Dynamic Species Distribution Modeling Reveals the Pivotal Role of Human-Mediated Long-Distance Dispersal in Plant Invasion

Popis výsledku anglicky

We use Bayesian dynamic species distribution models to explore the roles of long-distance dispersal and age-structured fecundity in the transient invasion dynamics of Plectranthus barbatus, a woody plant invader in South Africa. Our lattice-based model accounts for both short and human-mediated long-distance dispersal, as well as age-structured fecundity. We fitted our model on opportunistic occurrences, accounting for the spatio-temporal variations of the sampling effort and the variable detection rates across datasets. The Bayesian framework enables us to integrate a priori knowledge on demographic parameters and control identifiability issues. The model revealed a massive wave of spatial spread driven by human-mediated long-distance dispersal during the first decade and a subsequent drastic population growth, leading to a global equilibrium in the mid-1990s. Without long-distance dispersal, the maximum population would have been equivalent to 30% of the current equilibrium population. We further identified the reproductive maturity at three years old, which contributed to the lag phase before the final wave of population growth. Our results highlighted the importance of the early eradication of weedy horticultural alien plants around urban areas to hamper and delay the invasive spread.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF18_053%2F0017850" target="_blank" >EF18_053/0017850: Mobility 2020</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Biology

ISSN

2079-7737

e-ISSN

2079-7737

Svazek periodika

11

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

9

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

33

Strana od-do

1293

Kód UT WoS článku

000856233600001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85138719524