The Antonine Plague. Evaluation of its impact through epidemiological modelling

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68081758%3A_____%2F22%3A00568436" target="_blank" >RIV/68081758:_____/22:00568436 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://academic.oup.com/book/44160/chapter-abstract/372349918?redirectedFrom=fulltext" target="_blank" >https://academic.oup.com/book/44160/chapter-abstract/372349918?redirectedFrom=fulltext</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192857828.003.0003" target="_blank" >10.1093/oso/9780192857828.003.0003</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

The Antonine Plague. Evaluation of its impact through epidemiological modelling

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Since the beginning of discussions about the ‘third-century crisis’, the famous epidemic called the Antonine Plague has been often argued to be a key causal factor. During the crisis period, different segments and regions of the Roman world underwent various forms of turmoil (social unrest and uprising, economic problems, political instability etc.) or external incursions (warfare, barbarian raids). Our current scientific knowledge of the period suggests considerable ranges of the estimated death toll of the epidemic. The main intention of this paper is to test the plausibility of these different estimated impacts, on the basis of emulative digital modelling and simulation. A geographically explicit context, with a cellular framework, represents a workspace for spatio-temporal quantitative simulations to test various scenarios. Model input data include a reconstructed distribution of population density, infrastructure intensity, historical clinical data on the disease, and others. The vital part of simulation dynamics is defined through epidemiology mathematics (a compartment model with dynamics driven by differential equations). Coping with a large array of input variables, which are known and reconstructable only to a limited extent, has constrained our ability to test scenarios for assessing possible quantitative and spatial aspects of the epidemic impact within the demographic structures of the Roman Empire. Nevertheless, on basis of the simulation results it was possible to put some of existing estimates into new perspective regarding their general plausibility.

Název v anglickém jazyce

The Antonine Plague. Evaluation of its impact through epidemiological modelling

Popis výsledku anglicky

Since the beginning of discussions about the ‘third-century crisis’, the famous epidemic called the Antonine Plague has been often argued to be a key causal factor. During the crisis period, different segments and regions of the Roman world underwent various forms of turmoil (social unrest and uprising, economic problems, political instability etc.) or external incursions (warfare, barbarian raids). Our current scientific knowledge of the period suggests considerable ranges of the estimated death toll of the epidemic. The main intention of this paper is to test the plausibility of these different estimated impacts, on the basis of emulative digital modelling and simulation. A geographically explicit context, with a cellular framework, represents a workspace for spatio-temporal quantitative simulations to test various scenarios. Model input data include a reconstructed distribution of population density, infrastructure intensity, historical clinical data on the disease, and others. The vital part of simulation dynamics is defined through epidemiology mathematics (a compartment model with dynamics driven by differential equations). Coping with a large array of input variables, which are known and reconstructable only to a limited extent, has constrained our ability to test scenarios for assessing possible quantitative and spatial aspects of the epidemic impact within the demographic structures of the Roman Empire. Nevertheless, on basis of the simulation results it was possible to put some of existing estimates into new perspective regarding their general plausibility.

Druh

C - Kapitola v odborné knize

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

60102 - Archaeology

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název knihy nebo sborníku

Simulating Roman economies. Theories, methods, and computational models

ISBN

978-0-19-285782-8

Počet stran výsledku

40

Strana od-do

69-108

Počet stran knihy

332

Název nakladatele

Oxford University Press

Místo vydání

Oxford

Kód UT WoS kapitoly

—