Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F12%3A00390806" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/12:00390806 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

—

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

—

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Methods extrapolating observed radar reflectivity along Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used for nowcasting of precipitation. The forecast errors of these methods have two basic components. The first one stems from inaccurate estimates of the motion fields used for calculating trajectories. The second one follows from the assumtion that observed radar reflectivity does not change in another way that by the advection. Some research of these aspects has already been done but it concentrated to another reagions than to Central Europe. The aim of this study is to quantify these two errors and then quantify predictability and uncertainy in forecasting convective precipitation. We will analyze heavy convective storms which occurred in the Czech Republic in 2009 and 2010 by means of several extrapolation methods. The main attention will be devoted to analyses of forecasted and observed accumulated precipitation, in contrast to usually analyzed forecasted reflectivity, over 60 and 30 mi

Název v anglickém jazyce

Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods

Popis výsledku anglicky

Methods extrapolating observed radar reflectivity along Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used for nowcasting of precipitation. The forecast errors of these methods have two basic components. The first one stems from inaccurate estimates of the motion fields used for calculating trajectories. The second one follows from the assumtion that observed radar reflectivity does not change in another way that by the advection. Some research of these aspects has already been done but it concentrated to another reagions than to Central Europe. The aim of this study is to quantify these two errors and then quantify predictability and uncertainy in forecasting convective precipitation. We will analyze heavy convective storms which occurred in the Czech Republic in 2009 and 2010 by means of several extrapolation methods. The main attention will be devoted to analyses of forecasted and observed accumulated precipitation, in contrast to usually analyzed forecasted reflectivity, over 60 and 30 mi

Druh

O - Ostatní výsledky

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

—

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/ME09033" target="_blank" >ME09033: Velmi krátkodobá srážková a hydrologická předpověď zaměřená na prognózu přívalových povodní</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2012

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů