Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F16%3A00454829" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/16:00454829 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.12.006</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This study deals with the evaluation of the possibility of using the current numerical models for nowcasting of large hail (diameter 2.5 cm). Evaluation is focused on deterministic forecast with the lead times up to 2 h. As in our previous work (Sokol et al., 2014) the COSMO NWP model with a two moment cloud microphysics explicitly considering hail was applied. The model is run at a horizontal resolution of 1.1 km and with the assimilation of radar reflectivity. The model forecasts are evaluated for five events with large hail determined by direct observations and derived using a recognition algorithm based on radar and sounding data. The accuracy of model forecasts was evaluated subjectively by eye, by Fractions Skill Score and by bias. In addition distances between locations of forecasted and observed hail were analyzed and evaluated. Basic results of this study are that (i) forecasts longer than 90 min are problematic because of large errors and significant underestimation of forecasted hail, (ii) when the model forecasts large hail then there is a 50% chance that large hail will be observed within approximately 30 km.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Nowcasting of hailstorms simulated by the NWP model COSMO for the area of the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

This study deals with the evaluation of the possibility of using the current numerical models for nowcasting of large hail (diameter 2.5 cm). Evaluation is focused on deterministic forecast with the lead times up to 2 h. As in our previous work (Sokol et al., 2014) the COSMO NWP model with a two moment cloud microphysics explicitly considering hail was applied. The model is run at a horizontal resolution of 1.1 km and with the assimilation of radar reflectivity. The model forecasts are evaluated for five events with large hail determined by direct observations and derived using a recognition algorithm based on radar and sounding data. The accuracy of model forecasts was evaluated subjectively by eye, by Fractions Skill Score and by bias. In addition distances between locations of forecasted and observed hail were analyzed and evaluated. Basic results of this study are that (i) forecasts longer than 90 min are problematic because of large errors and significant underestimation of forecasted hail, (ii) when the model forecasts large hail then there is a 50% chance that large hail will be observed within approximately 30 km.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Atmospheric Research

ISSN

0169-8095

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

171

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1 May

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

66-76

Kód UT WoS článku

000369681200007

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-84953286284