Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F17%3A00479390" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/17:00479390 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614" target="_blank" >10.1002/2017SW001614</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the eliophysics System Observatory
Popis výsledku anglicky
We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
10305 - Fluids and plasma physics (including surface physics)
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
<a href="/cs/project/GJ17-06818Y" target="_blank" >GJ17-06818Y: Heliosférická pozorování s využitím k předpovídání kosmického počasí</a><br>
Návaznosti
P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2017
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Space Weather
ISSN
1542-7390
e-ISSN
—
Svazek periodika
15
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
7
Stát vydavatele periodika
US - Spojené státy americké
Počet stran výsledku
16
Strana od-do
955-970
Kód UT WoS článku
000407927800009
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85026490376