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Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs

Identifikátory výsledku

  • Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

    <a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F19%3A00499867" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/19:00499867 - isvavai.cz</a>

  • Nalezeny alternativní kódy

    RIV/60460709:41330/19:79730

  • Výsledek na webu

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321</a>

  • DOI - Digital Object Identifier

    <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321" target="_blank" >10.1155/2019/2178321</a>

Alternativní jazyky

  • Jazyk výsledku

    angličtina

  • Název v původním jazyce

    Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs

  • Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

    We study summer heat waves and winter cold spells and their links to atmospheric circulation in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs in Central Europe. Results of 19 simulations were compared against observations over 1980–2005. Atmospheric circulation was represented by circulation types and supertypes derived from daily gridded mean sea level pressure. We examined observed and simulated characteristics of hot and cold days (defined using percentiles of temperature anomalies from the mean annual cycle) and heat waves and cold spells (periods of at least three hot/cold days in summer/winter). Although the ensemble of RCMs reproduces on average the frequency and the mean length of heat waves and cold spells relatively well, individual simulations suffer from biases. Most model runs have an enhanced tendency to group hot/cold days into sequences, with several simulations leading to extremely long heat waves or cold spells (the maximum length overestimated by up to 2-3 times). All simulations also produce an extreme winter season with (often considerably) higher number of cold days than in any observed winter. The RCMs reproduce in general the observed circulation significantly conducive to heat waves and cold spells. Zonal flow reduces the probability of temperature extremes in both seasons, while advection of warm/cold air from the south-easterly/north-easterly quadrant plays a dominant role in developing heat waves/cold spells. Because of these links, the simulation of temperature extremes in RCMs is strongly affected by biases in atmospheric circulation. For almost all simulations and all circulation supertypes, the persistence of supertypes is significantly overestimated (even if the frequency of a given supertype is underestimated), which may contribute to development of too-long heat waves/cold spells. We did not identify any substantial improvement in the EURO-CORDEX RCMs in comparison to previous ENSEMBLES RCMs, but the patterns of the biases are generally less conclusive as to general RCMs’ drawbacks.

  • Název v anglickém jazyce

    Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs

  • Popis výsledku anglicky

    We study summer heat waves and winter cold spells and their links to atmospheric circulation in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs in Central Europe. Results of 19 simulations were compared against observations over 1980–2005. Atmospheric circulation was represented by circulation types and supertypes derived from daily gridded mean sea level pressure. We examined observed and simulated characteristics of hot and cold days (defined using percentiles of temperature anomalies from the mean annual cycle) and heat waves and cold spells (periods of at least three hot/cold days in summer/winter). Although the ensemble of RCMs reproduces on average the frequency and the mean length of heat waves and cold spells relatively well, individual simulations suffer from biases. Most model runs have an enhanced tendency to group hot/cold days into sequences, with several simulations leading to extremely long heat waves or cold spells (the maximum length overestimated by up to 2-3 times). All simulations also produce an extreme winter season with (often considerably) higher number of cold days than in any observed winter. The RCMs reproduce in general the observed circulation significantly conducive to heat waves and cold spells. Zonal flow reduces the probability of temperature extremes in both seasons, while advection of warm/cold air from the south-easterly/north-easterly quadrant plays a dominant role in developing heat waves/cold spells. Because of these links, the simulation of temperature extremes in RCMs is strongly affected by biases in atmospheric circulation. For almost all simulations and all circulation supertypes, the persistence of supertypes is significantly overestimated (even if the frequency of a given supertype is underestimated), which may contribute to development of too-long heat waves/cold spells. We did not identify any substantial improvement in the EURO-CORDEX RCMs in comparison to previous ENSEMBLES RCMs, but the patterns of the biases are generally less conclusive as to general RCMs’ drawbacks.

Klasifikace

  • Druh

    J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

  • CEP obor

  • OECD FORD obor

    10510 - Climatic research

Návaznosti výsledku

  • Projekt

    <a href="/cs/project/GA16-22000S" target="_blank" >GA16-22000S: Prostorové a časové charakteristiky horkých a studených vln v simulacích klimatických modelů</a><br>

  • Návaznosti

    P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Ostatní

  • Rok uplatnění

    2019

  • Kód důvěrnosti údajů

    S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku

  • Název periodika

    Advances in Meteorology

  • ISSN

    1687-9309

  • e-ISSN

  • Svazek periodika

    2019

  • Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

    January

  • Stát vydavatele periodika

    US - Spojené státy americké

  • Počet stran výsledku

    13

  • Strana od-do

  • Kód UT WoS článku

    000456963600001

  • EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

    2-s2.0-85060788346