Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F19%3A00499867" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/19:00499867 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/19:79730

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2178321" target="_blank" >10.1155/2019/2178321</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

We study summer heat waves and winter cold spells and their links to atmospheric circulation in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs in Central Europe. Results of 19 simulations were compared against observations over 1980–2005. Atmospheric circulation was represented by circulation types and supertypes derived from daily gridded mean sea level pressure. We examined observed and simulated characteristics of hot and cold days (defined using percentiles of temperature anomalies from the mean annual cycle) and heat waves and cold spells (periods of at least three hot/cold days in summer/winter). Although the ensemble of RCMs reproduces on average the frequency and the mean length of heat waves and cold spells relatively well, individual simulations suffer from biases. Most model runs have an enhanced tendency to group hot/cold days into sequences, with several simulations leading to extremely long heat waves or cold spells (the maximum length overestimated by up to 2-3 times). All simulations also produce an extreme winter season with (often considerably) higher number of cold days than in any observed winter. The RCMs reproduce in general the observed circulation significantly conducive to heat waves and cold spells. Zonal flow reduces the probability of temperature extremes in both seasons, while advection of warm/cold air from the south-easterly/north-easterly quadrant plays a dominant role in developing heat waves/cold spells. Because of these links, the simulation of temperature extremes in RCMs is strongly affected by biases in atmospheric circulation. For almost all simulations and all circulation supertypes, the persistence of supertypes is significantly overestimated (even if the frequency of a given supertype is underestimated), which may contribute to development of too-long heat waves/cold spells. We did not identify any substantial improvement in the EURO-CORDEX RCMs in comparison to previous ENSEMBLES RCMs, but the patterns of the biases are generally less conclusive as to general RCMs’ drawbacks.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Temporal Characteristics of Heat Waves and Cold Spells and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs

Popis výsledku anglicky

We study summer heat waves and winter cold spells and their links to atmospheric circulation in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs in Central Europe. Results of 19 simulations were compared against observations over 1980–2005. Atmospheric circulation was represented by circulation types and supertypes derived from daily gridded mean sea level pressure. We examined observed and simulated characteristics of hot and cold days (defined using percentiles of temperature anomalies from the mean annual cycle) and heat waves and cold spells (periods of at least three hot/cold days in summer/winter). Although the ensemble of RCMs reproduces on average the frequency and the mean length of heat waves and cold spells relatively well, individual simulations suffer from biases. Most model runs have an enhanced tendency to group hot/cold days into sequences, with several simulations leading to extremely long heat waves or cold spells (the maximum length overestimated by up to 2-3 times). All simulations also produce an extreme winter season with (often considerably) higher number of cold days than in any observed winter. The RCMs reproduce in general the observed circulation significantly conducive to heat waves and cold spells. Zonal flow reduces the probability of temperature extremes in both seasons, while advection of warm/cold air from the south-easterly/north-easterly quadrant plays a dominant role in developing heat waves/cold spells. Because of these links, the simulation of temperature extremes in RCMs is strongly affected by biases in atmospheric circulation. For almost all simulations and all circulation supertypes, the persistence of supertypes is significantly overestimated (even if the frequency of a given supertype is underestimated), which may contribute to development of too-long heat waves/cold spells. We did not identify any substantial improvement in the EURO-CORDEX RCMs in comparison to previous ENSEMBLES RCMs, but the patterns of the biases are generally less conclusive as to general RCMs’ drawbacks.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA16-22000S" target="_blank" >GA16-22000S: Prostorové a časové charakteristiky horkých a studených vln v simulacích klimatických modelů</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2019

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Advances in Meteorology

ISSN

1687-9309

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

2019

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

January

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

13

Strana od-do

—

Kód UT WoS článku

000456963600001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85060788346