Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F21%3A00556275" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/21:00556275 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216208:11310/21:10431575

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4131" target="_blank" >https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4131</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4131" target="_blank" >10.1002/qj.4131</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Forecasting heavy precipitation has an important role in mitigating floods and associated hazards, but it remains one of the main challenges in operational meteorology. Our previous study confirmed the close connection between large-scale extreme precipitation events and anomalous moisture fluxes in central Europe. In this study, we introduce a variable accounting for the accumulated ascending moisture flux, which could potentially support extreme precipitation event forecasts. The variable reflects the total amount of transported water vapour in combination with extra high upward vertical velocity, which are important factors required for extreme precipitation occurrence. Looking at ERA-Interim forecasts, we aim to determine a practical predictability and forecast skill of accumulated ascending moisture flux and compare it with the forecast skill of precipitation. While the predictability of moisture flux itself is satisfactory, generally less accurate forecasts of the vertical velocity negatively affect the predictability of accumulated ascending moisture flux, especially in the case of summer precipitation events with prevailing northern moisture flux. Nevertheless, the forecast of the proposed variable was adequate and stable up to 6 days in advance in all cases of maximum events that produced major central European summer floods. There were no such stable forecasts for less extreme events or false-alarm precipitation extremes. Thus, we hypothesize that the calculation of the accumulated ascending moisture flux from numerical weather prediction could be useful as a supporting tool in extreme precipitation warnings in central Europe.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Predictability of moisture flux anomalies indicating central European extreme precipitation events

Popis výsledku anglicky

Forecasting heavy precipitation has an important role in mitigating floods and associated hazards, but it remains one of the main challenges in operational meteorology. Our previous study confirmed the close connection between large-scale extreme precipitation events and anomalous moisture fluxes in central Europe. In this study, we introduce a variable accounting for the accumulated ascending moisture flux, which could potentially support extreme precipitation event forecasts. The variable reflects the total amount of transported water vapour in combination with extra high upward vertical velocity, which are important factors required for extreme precipitation occurrence. Looking at ERA-Interim forecasts, we aim to determine a practical predictability and forecast skill of accumulated ascending moisture flux and compare it with the forecast skill of precipitation. While the predictability of moisture flux itself is satisfactory, generally less accurate forecasts of the vertical velocity negatively affect the predictability of accumulated ascending moisture flux, especially in the case of summer precipitation events with prevailing northern moisture flux. Nevertheless, the forecast of the proposed variable was adequate and stable up to 6 days in advance in all cases of maximum events that produced major central European summer floods. There were no such stable forecasts for less extreme events or false-alarm precipitation extremes. Thus, we hypothesize that the calculation of the accumulated ascending moisture flux from numerical weather prediction could be useful as a supporting tool in extreme precipitation warnings in central Europe.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LTC19043" target="_blank" >LTC19043: Extremita a příčiny sdružených meteorologických událostí ve střední Evropě</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

ISSN

0035-9009

e-ISSN

1477-870X

Svazek periodika

147

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

739

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

14

Strana od-do

3335-3348

Kód UT WoS článku

000684870100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85112385176