Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F22%3A00557622" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/22:00557622 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/22:00557709 RIV/00020711:_____/22:10154886 RIV/00020699:_____/22:N0000016 RIV/62156489:43210/22:43921073 a 2 dalších

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422000075?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422000075?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107460" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107460</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The close relationship between the onset and severity of agricultural and hydrological drought is considered selfevident, yet relatively few studies have addressed the effects of applying agricultural drought adaptation to hydrological drought characteristics. The present study applies a model cascade capable of simultaneously considering the interactions between agricultural and hydrological droughts. The study area covers all river basins in the Czech Republic and includes the periods of 1956-2015 (baseline) and 2021-2080 (future). The model cascade was shown to explain 91% of the variability in the seasonal and annual accumulated runoff and allows for the analysis of increasing/maintaining/decreasing available water capacity (AWC) across the 133 defined basins with a total area of c. 78,000 km2. The study reports that the probability and extent of agricultural drought increased over the entire period with higher AWC scenario showing slower pace of such increase especially from April to June. The trends in the extent or severity of hydrological droughts were of low magnitude. The future climate has been projected through the use of ensembles of five global (CMIP5) and five regional (EURO-CORDEX) climate models. The results showed a significant increase in the duration of agricultural drought stress and in the area affected throughout the year, particularly in July-September. The hydrological drought response showed a marked difference between areas with a negative and positive climatic water balance, i.e., areas where long-term reference evapotranspiration exceeds long-term precipitation (negative climatic water balance) and where it does not (positive climatic water balance). The overall results indicate that increasing soil AWC would decrease the frequency and likely also impact of future agricultural droughts, especially during spring. This result would be especially true if the wetter winters predicted by some of the models materialized. Hydrological droughts at the country level are estimated to become more pronounced with increasing AWC, particularly in catchments with a negative climatic water balance.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions

Popis výsledku anglicky

The close relationship between the onset and severity of agricultural and hydrological drought is considered selfevident, yet relatively few studies have addressed the effects of applying agricultural drought adaptation to hydrological drought characteristics. The present study applies a model cascade capable of simultaneously considering the interactions between agricultural and hydrological droughts. The study area covers all river basins in the Czech Republic and includes the periods of 1956-2015 (baseline) and 2021-2080 (future). The model cascade was shown to explain 91% of the variability in the seasonal and annual accumulated runoff and allows for the analysis of increasing/maintaining/decreasing available water capacity (AWC) across the 133 defined basins with a total area of c. 78,000 km2. The study reports that the probability and extent of agricultural drought increased over the entire period with higher AWC scenario showing slower pace of such increase especially from April to June. The trends in the extent or severity of hydrological droughts were of low magnitude. The future climate has been projected through the use of ensembles of five global (CMIP5) and five regional (EURO-CORDEX) climate models. The results showed a significant increase in the duration of agricultural drought stress and in the area affected throughout the year, particularly in July-September. The hydrological drought response showed a marked difference between areas with a negative and positive climatic water balance, i.e., areas where long-term reference evapotranspiration exceeds long-term precipitation (negative climatic water balance) and where it does not (positive climatic water balance). The overall results indicate that increasing soil AWC would decrease the frequency and likely also impact of future agricultural droughts, especially during spring. This result would be especially true if the wetter winters predicted by some of the models materialized. Hydrological droughts at the country level are estimated to become more pronounced with increasing AWC, particularly in catchments with a negative climatic water balance.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agricultural Water Management

ISSN

0378-3774

e-ISSN

1873-2283

Svazek periodika

264

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

Apr 30

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

16

Strana od-do

107460

Kód UT WoS článku

000792916800004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85123364997