All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F24%3A00587440" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/24:00587440 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41330/24:101633

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001177?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519624001177?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00117-7" target="_blank" >10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00117-7</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally.nMethods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0–2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels.nFindings: Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 μg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0–2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (–0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85, 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (–0·10 to 0·91, 5249 [–1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51, 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3.nInterpretation: In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires.

Název v anglickém jazyce

All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis

Popis výsledku anglicky

Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally.nMethods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0–2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels.nFindings: Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 μg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0–2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (–0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85, 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (–0·10 to 0·91, 5249 [–1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51, 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3.nInterpretation: In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GA22-24920S" target="_blank" >GA22-24920S: Vztahy mezi počasím, epidemiemi a sezónním chodem úmrtnosti</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Lancet Planetary Health

ISSN

2542-5196

e-ISSN

2542-5196

Svazek periodika

8

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

7

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

"e452"-"e462"

Kód UT WoS článku

001266988100001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85197272393