Precipitation variability in CMIP6 climate models across the North Atlantic–European region and their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00605012" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00605012 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/25:00643863

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07556-w" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07556-w</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07556-w" target="_blank" >10.1007/s00382-024-07556-w</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Precipitation variability in CMIP6 climate models across the North Atlantic–European region and their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Long-term changes in climate variability represent an important aspect of climate change, with various impacts on society and environment. In this study, we analyze outputs from 13 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) across the North Atlantic–European domain, focusing on their simulations of precipitation probability and short-term variability in both historical and future climates. Precipitation probability denotes the probability of a wet day (> 1 mm), and precipitation variability reflects the tendency to cluster wet days into sequences. By comparing against the ERA5 reanalysis, we found that the GCMs tend to overestimate precipitation probability across Europe in winter, whereas in summer, they have a tendency to underestimate it around 50°N. Precipitation variability is, on average, underestimated by the GCMs in summer, while overestimated in several regions in winter. Projections for the end of the twenty-first century indicate significant changes in both precipitation probability and variability which are more pronounced under the more pessimistic emission scenario compared to the moderate one. We found that the changes in probability and variability are mutually independent: the former being more latitudinal-dependent while the latter differs between the west and east. After identifying atmospheric circulation conducive and non-conducive to precipitation occurrence, we found that GCMs overestimating the frequency of conducive circulation tend to overestimate precipitation probability, and vice versa. Furthermore, increased precipitation variability is associated with higher circulation variability. Finally, our analysis reveals that projected changes in precipitation probability and variability are often linked to projected changes in atmospheric circulation, especially in winter.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Precipitation variability in CMIP6 climate models across the North Atlantic–European region and their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

Popis výsledku anglicky

Long-term changes in climate variability represent an important aspect of climate change, with various impacts on society and environment. In this study, we analyze outputs from 13 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) across the North Atlantic–European domain, focusing on their simulations of precipitation probability and short-term variability in both historical and future climates. Precipitation probability denotes the probability of a wet day (> 1 mm), and precipitation variability reflects the tendency to cluster wet days into sequences. By comparing against the ERA5 reanalysis, we found that the GCMs tend to overestimate precipitation probability across Europe in winter, whereas in summer, they have a tendency to underestimate it around 50°N. Precipitation variability is, on average, underestimated by the GCMs in summer, while overestimated in several regions in winter. Projections for the end of the twenty-first century indicate significant changes in both precipitation probability and variability which are more pronounced under the more pessimistic emission scenario compared to the moderate one. We found that the changes in probability and variability are mutually independent: the former being more latitudinal-dependent while the latter differs between the west and east. After identifying atmospheric circulation conducive and non-conducive to precipitation occurrence, we found that GCMs overestimating the frequency of conducive circulation tend to overestimate precipitation probability, and vice versa. Furthermore, increased precipitation variability is associated with higher circulation variability. Finally, our analysis reveals that projected changes in precipitation probability and variability are often linked to projected changes in atmospheric circulation, especially in winter.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Dynamics

ISSN

0930-7575

e-ISSN

1432-0894

Svazek periodika

63

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

98

Kód UT WoS článku

001405096800001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85217559040