Climate change impacts on two European crop rotations via an ensemble of models

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68378289%3A_____%2F25%3A00618041" target="_blank" >RIV/68378289:_____/25:00618041 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/86652079:_____/25:00603833 RIV/62156489:43210/25:43926207

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030124003770?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030124003770?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127456" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.eja.2024.127456</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Climate change impacts on two European crop rotations via an ensemble of models

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Continuous long-term simulations of an ensemble of nine crop models covering the 1961-2080 period was employed to assess the expected impacts of climate change on the crop yield and water use for distinct crop rotations (CRs) in Europe. In this study, the likelihood of changes in two differently managed CRs (conventional and alternative) involving four important field crops (winter wheat, spring barley, silage maize, and winter oilseed rape) was assessed. The conventional agricultural practice (CR1) included only mineral fertilization with the removal of crop residues after harvest. The alternative agricultural practice (CR2) included cover crops and the application of mineral and organic fertilizers, with crop residues retained in the field. The simulations covered six sites in five European countries (M & uumlhldorf and M & uumlncheberg in Germany, Ukkel in Belgium, & Oslashdum in Denmark, Milhostov in Slovakia and Lednice in Czechia) based on two distinct soil profiles (universal soil and site-specific soils). The universal soil was the same across all the sites, while the site-specific soils were typical of each region. Eight transient climate change scenarios (4 general circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) were used to capture the possible evolution of future climatic conditions. Compared with those during the 1962-1990 period, the ensemble projections for the 2051-2080 period indicated average increases in the annual yields of all crops of 0.7 t/ha (RCP 2.6) and 0.8 t/ha (PCP 8.5) under both CRs and soil types. Under most climate change scenarios, the crop model ensemble projections of the winter wheat and winter oilseed rape yield increases agreed for CR2 but not for CR1. For spring barley, the simulated increase was more sporadic, with no significant difference between CR1 and CR2. In regard to silage maize, the changes in the simulated yields depended on site-specific climatic conditions. If the same varieties were planted in the future, yield reductions would be expected, except at the & Oslashdum site, where the silage maize growth conditions would remain satisfactory, regardless of the CR and soil type. The results indicated greater cover crop biomass production, which could affect the long-term soil water balance and groundwater replen- ishment. The crop model ensemble further indicated a greater spatial variability in the yield can be expected, which is likely caused by the expected increase in the air temperature and not by the expected increase, or even decrease, in the total precipitation and increases in the actual evapotranspiration under climate change at all sites. This trend was greater under CR2 and could affect the long-term soil water balance and soil regime in the case of rainfed agriculture.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Climate change impacts on two European crop rotations via an ensemble of models

Popis výsledku anglicky

Continuous long-term simulations of an ensemble of nine crop models covering the 1961-2080 period was employed to assess the expected impacts of climate change on the crop yield and water use for distinct crop rotations (CRs) in Europe. In this study, the likelihood of changes in two differently managed CRs (conventional and alternative) involving four important field crops (winter wheat, spring barley, silage maize, and winter oilseed rape) was assessed. The conventional agricultural practice (CR1) included only mineral fertilization with the removal of crop residues after harvest. The alternative agricultural practice (CR2) included cover crops and the application of mineral and organic fertilizers, with crop residues retained in the field. The simulations covered six sites in five European countries (M & uumlhldorf and M & uumlncheberg in Germany, Ukkel in Belgium, & Oslashdum in Denmark, Milhostov in Slovakia and Lednice in Czechia) based on two distinct soil profiles (universal soil and site-specific soils). The universal soil was the same across all the sites, while the site-specific soils were typical of each region. Eight transient climate change scenarios (4 general circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5) were used to capture the possible evolution of future climatic conditions. Compared with those during the 1962-1990 period, the ensemble projections for the 2051-2080 period indicated average increases in the annual yields of all crops of 0.7 t/ha (RCP 2.6) and 0.8 t/ha (PCP 8.5) under both CRs and soil types. Under most climate change scenarios, the crop model ensemble projections of the winter wheat and winter oilseed rape yield increases agreed for CR2 but not for CR1. For spring barley, the simulated increase was more sporadic, with no significant difference between CR1 and CR2. In regard to silage maize, the changes in the simulated yields depended on site-specific climatic conditions. If the same varieties were planted in the future, yield reductions would be expected, except at the & Oslashdum site, where the silage maize growth conditions would remain satisfactory, regardless of the CR and soil type. The results indicated greater cover crop biomass production, which could affect the long-term soil water balance and groundwater replen- ishment. The crop model ensemble further indicated a greater spatial variability in the yield can be expected, which is likely caused by the expected increase in the air temperature and not by the expected increase, or even decrease, in the total precipitation and increases in the actual evapotranspiration under climate change at all sites. This trend was greater under CR2 and could affect the long-term soil water balance and soil regime in the case of rainfed agriculture.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10510 - Climatic research

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EH22_008%2F0004635" target="_blank" >EH22_008/0004635: AdAgriF - Pokročilé metody redukce emisí a sekvestrace skleníkových plynů v zemědělské a lesní krajině pro mitigaci změny klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

European Journal of Agronomy

ISSN

1161-0301

e-ISSN

1873-7331

Svazek periodika

164

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

March

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

127456

Kód UT WoS článku

001388008000001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85211972329