Air Cargo Demand Prediction on Selected Routes by Holt-Winter Algorithm

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F68407700%3A21260%2F22%3A00362088" target="_blank" >RIV/68407700:21260/22:00362088 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://doi.org/10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392" target="_blank" >https://doi.org/10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392" target="_blank" >10.23919/NTCA55899.2022.9934392</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Air Cargo Demand Prediction on Selected Routes by Holt-Winter Algorithm

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Freight transported by air plays an important role in world economics. The covid pandemic had an unprecedently negative impact on passenger air transport, but air cargo maintained its performance. We could even see significant increase in some markets. Due to the increased demand for freight, the airlines had to deal with a shortage of capacity. This situation showed us, the importance of planning and optimizing the cargo fleet. One of the input factors for decision-making is the development of demand. This research was focused on the prediction of the air cargo demand on five routes: two within Europe, two Europe-Asia, and one Europe-N. America. The main source of data was the Eurostat database (data by months 1/2015-12/2020). Metric used was the weight of freight loaded and unloaded between selected cities in tonnes. Statistical significance of the data was assessed using linear and quadratic regression analysis. The prediction was performed using the Holt-Winter algorithm (1/2021-4/2022). One of the selected routes proved to be very demanding in terms of increasing traffic. The rest of the routes showed less increase in volume of air cargo transport. Validation of the method/prediction was performed by evaluating real data for the same period.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Air Cargo Demand Prediction on Selected Routes by Holt-Winter Algorithm

Popis výsledku anglicky

Freight transported by air plays an important role in world economics. The covid pandemic had an unprecedently negative impact on passenger air transport, but air cargo maintained its performance. We could even see significant increase in some markets. Due to the increased demand for freight, the airlines had to deal with a shortage of capacity. This situation showed us, the importance of planning and optimizing the cargo fleet. One of the input factors for decision-making is the development of demand. This research was focused on the prediction of the air cargo demand on five routes: two within Europe, two Europe-Asia, and one Europe-N. America. The main source of data was the Eurostat database (data by months 1/2015-12/2020). Metric used was the weight of freight loaded and unloaded between selected cities in tonnes. Statistical significance of the data was assessed using linear and quadratic regression analysis. The prediction was performed using the Holt-Winter algorithm (1/2021-4/2022). One of the selected routes proved to be very demanding in terms of increasing traffic. The rest of the routes showed less increase in volume of air cargo transport. Validation of the method/prediction was performed by evaluating real data for the same period.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50204 - Business and management

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

2022 New Trends in Civil Aviation (NTCA)

ISBN

978-80-01-06985-1

ISSN

—

e-ISSN

2694-7854

Počet stran výsledku

5

Strana od-do

87-91

Název nakladatele

České vysoké učení technické v Praze

Místo vydání

Praha

Místo konání akce

Praha

Datum konání akce

26. 10. 2022

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

000895902200012