Prediction of business cycle of Poland

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28120%2F22%3A63550078" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28120/22:63550078 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.jois.eu/?778,en_prediction-of-business-cycle-of-poland" target="_blank" >https://www.jois.eu/?778,en_prediction-of-business-cycle-of-poland</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-3/5" target="_blank" >10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-3/5</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Prediction of business cycle of Poland

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The paper is focused on the construction of a new composite indicator intended to predict the economic cycle of Poland and its comparison with the existing CLI used by international institutions such as OECD and Eurostat. In part, this research is also dedicated to monitoring the partial advance cyclical indicators that make up the CLI components and their changes over time. The paper explores 62 qualitative and quantitative economic indicators of Poland and their relationship to the development of monthly GDP at constant prices in three different time periods: 2005 to 2021, 2010 to 2021, and 2016 to 2021. A modified OECD method is used to select the cyclical component of time series using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and subsequently employ cross-correlation of the variables with the cyclical component of GDP. The constructed CLI can predict the evolution of the CLI one month ahead with a cross-correlation level of 0.879 under equal weights and 0.877 under different weights. Research has shown that there is no significant change in the composition of the CLI for the prediction of the economic cycle of Poland when using the established methodology.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Prediction of business cycle of Poland

Popis výsledku anglicky

The paper is focused on the construction of a new composite indicator intended to predict the economic cycle of Poland and its comparison with the existing CLI used by international institutions such as OECD and Eurostat. In part, this research is also dedicated to monitoring the partial advance cyclical indicators that make up the CLI components and their changes over time. The paper explores 62 qualitative and quantitative economic indicators of Poland and their relationship to the development of monthly GDP at constant prices in three different time periods: 2005 to 2021, 2010 to 2021, and 2016 to 2021. A modified OECD method is used to select the cyclical component of time series using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and subsequently employ cross-correlation of the variables with the cyclical component of GDP. The constructed CLI can predict the evolution of the CLI one month ahead with a cross-correlation level of 0.879 under equal weights and 0.877 under different weights. Research has shown that there is no significant change in the composition of the CLI for the prediction of the economic cycle of Poland when using the established methodology.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Journal of International Studies

ISSN

2071-8330

e-ISSN

2306-3483

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

PL - Polská republika

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

65-81

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85140470481