From stability to risk: Trajectories of fiscal sustainability in the European Union

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28120%2F25%3A63592858" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28120/25:63592858 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://pjms.zim.pcz.pl/article/555299/en" target="_blank" >https://pjms.zim.pcz.pl/article/555299/en</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.17512/pjms.2025.32.1.16" target="_blank" >10.17512/pjms.2025.32.1.16</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

From stability to risk: Trajectories of fiscal sustainability in the European Union

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of European Union member states during the period 2015–2024 by applying three core indicators (S0, S1, and S2) published by the European Commission, which capture short-, medium-, and long-term risks. The study combines descriptive analysis, trend assessment, principal component analysis (PCA), and the construction of a synthetic fiscal sustainability index. This multidimensional approach allows us to identify systematic differences among countries, to evaluate their trajectories over two sub-periods (2015–2018 and 2019–2024), and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis on fiscal positions. The findings reveal that while short-term risks remain relatively stable across the EU, medium- and long-term risks diverge significantly, with Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania among the most vulnerable, and Nordic countries and Germany maintaining stable positions. The proposed index complements PCA and offers policymakers a transparent tool for identifying high-risk countries. The novelty of the study lies in integrating PCA on both levels and trends of S0–S2 with a newly developed synthetic index, enabling a more nuanced detection of fiscal sustainability trajectories before and after the pandemic.

Název v anglickém jazyce

From stability to risk: Trajectories of fiscal sustainability in the European Union

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of European Union member states during the period 2015–2024 by applying three core indicators (S0, S1, and S2) published by the European Commission, which capture short-, medium-, and long-term risks. The study combines descriptive analysis, trend assessment, principal component analysis (PCA), and the construction of a synthetic fiscal sustainability index. This multidimensional approach allows us to identify systematic differences among countries, to evaluate their trajectories over two sub-periods (2015–2018 and 2019–2024), and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis on fiscal positions. The findings reveal that while short-term risks remain relatively stable across the EU, medium- and long-term risks diverge significantly, with Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania among the most vulnerable, and Nordic countries and Germany maintaining stable positions. The proposed index complements PCA and offers policymakers a transparent tool for identifying high-risk countries. The novelty of the study lies in integrating PCA on both levels and trends of S0–S2 with a newly developed synthetic index, enabling a more nuanced detection of fiscal sustainability trajectories before and after the pandemic.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

50201 - Economic Theory

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2025

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Polish Journal of Management Studies

ISSN

2081-7452

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

32

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

PL - Polská republika

Počet stran výsledku

24

Strana od-do

268-291

Kód UT WoS článku

001690316400016

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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