Statistical, Quantitative Probability and Nowcasting Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Storms

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28140%2F18%3A63520345" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28140/18:63520345 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

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DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Statistical, Quantitative Probability and Nowcasting Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Storms

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

This paper deals with the comparison of the statistical, quantitative and nowcasting method of prediction of convective precipitation and the risk of flood floods, which are the main outputs calculated by the Algorithm of Storm Prediction. The evaluation of the success of these outputs was carried out on the basis of verified 63 thunderstorms and three floods that affected the Zlín Region between 2015 and 2017. The first part of the article focuses on the description and evaluation of the predictive outputs of the quantitative prediction of the probability of the occurrence and the intensity of convective precipitation computed from NWP models. At the same time, these outcomes are compared with the outputs of the statistical and nowcasting predictions of convective precipitation. The statistical prediction of convective precipitation is calculated on the selection of the predicted and historical situation from the statistics database. The nowcasting prediction works with the outputs of the MMR50 X-band meteorological radar of the Zlín Region. The second part explores the use of track storms for statistical prediction, which is intended as an indicative and complementary forecast for the method of quantitative prediction of precipitation. The conclusion of the two chapters is a comparison of the success of the predicted outputs of methods, which can be used and put into practice in particular for the prediction of convective precipitation and the risk of floods for purposes of warning and meteorological services and crisis management.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Statistical, Quantitative Probability and Nowcasting Forecasting Methods of Severe Convective Storms

Popis výsledku anglicky

This paper deals with the comparison of the statistical, quantitative and nowcasting method of prediction of convective precipitation and the risk of flood floods, which are the main outputs calculated by the Algorithm of Storm Prediction. The evaluation of the success of these outputs was carried out on the basis of verified 63 thunderstorms and three floods that affected the Zlín Region between 2015 and 2017. The first part of the article focuses on the description and evaluation of the predictive outputs of the quantitative prediction of the probability of the occurrence and the intensity of convective precipitation computed from NWP models. At the same time, these outcomes are compared with the outputs of the statistical and nowcasting predictions of convective precipitation. The statistical prediction of convective precipitation is calculated on the selection of the predicted and historical situation from the statistics database. The nowcasting prediction works with the outputs of the MMR50 X-band meteorological radar of the Zlín Region. The second part explores the use of track storms for statistical prediction, which is intended as an indicative and complementary forecast for the method of quantitative prediction of precipitation. The conclusion of the two chapters is a comparison of the success of the predicted outputs of methods, which can be used and put into practice in particular for the prediction of convective precipitation and the risk of floods for purposes of warning and meteorological services and crisis management.

Druh

J_ost - Ostatní články v recenzovaných periodicích

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LO1303" target="_blank" >LO1303: Podpora udržitelnosti a rozvoje Centra bezpečnostních, informačních a pokročilých technologií (CEBIA-Tech)</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2018

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development

ISSN

1790-5079

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

Volume 14

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

neuveden

Stát vydavatele periodika

GR - Řecká republika

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

607-618

Kód UT WoS článku

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EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85061254350