INTERMITTENT TIME SERIES DEMAND FORECASTING USING DUAL CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F70883521%3A28140%2F24%3A63588858" target="_blank" >RIV/70883521:28140/24:63588858 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://mendel-journal.org/index.php/mendel/article/view/413/235" target="_blank" >https://mendel-journal.org/index.php/mendel/article/view/413/235</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.13164/mendel.2024.1.051" target="_blank" >10.13164/mendel.2024.1.051</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

INTERMITTENT TIME SERIES DEMAND FORECASTING USING DUAL CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Forecasting intermittent demands is challenging due to their irregular and unpredictable demand pattern. This makes the businesses unprepared for upcoming demands, where the conventional methods often fail to predict the demand occurrence pattern sufficiently. In this paper, we proposed a two-step approach, &quot;UR2CUTE,&quot; (Using Repetitively 2 CNN for Unsteady Timeseries Estimation), employing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) specifically designed to handle the unique challenges of intermittent time series. CNNs, known for their effectiveness in capturing spatial and temporal patterns in data, offer a promising area to improve forecast accuracy in predicting time series demand patterns. Our approach presents a combined process for intermittent demand forecasting. A CNN model is initially designed as a binary classifier to determine demand occurrence. Afterward, a distinct CNN model is employed to estimate the magnitude of the demand. This dual-phase approach improves forecasting accuracy in intermittent demands, specifically in predicting the non-demand (Zero-Demand). The suggested approach notably surpasses traditional forecasting techniques, including Croston&apos;s method, which is tailored for intermittent demand forecasting. It also outperforms other methods like XGboost, Random Forest, ETR, Prophet, and AutoArima, especially in predicting the lead time demand distribution for sporadic demands. The deployment of dual CNN models facilitates a deeper understanding of intermittent demand dynamics. This, in turn, enhances supply chain management effectiveness and efficiency, offering a robust solution to the complex challenges of intermittent demand forecasting.

Název v anglickém jazyce

INTERMITTENT TIME SERIES DEMAND FORECASTING USING DUAL CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Popis výsledku anglicky

Forecasting intermittent demands is challenging due to their irregular and unpredictable demand pattern. This makes the businesses unprepared for upcoming demands, where the conventional methods often fail to predict the demand occurrence pattern sufficiently. In this paper, we proposed a two-step approach, &quot;UR2CUTE,&quot; (Using Repetitively 2 CNN for Unsteady Timeseries Estimation), employing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) specifically designed to handle the unique challenges of intermittent time series. CNNs, known for their effectiveness in capturing spatial and temporal patterns in data, offer a promising area to improve forecast accuracy in predicting time series demand patterns. Our approach presents a combined process for intermittent demand forecasting. A CNN model is initially designed as a binary classifier to determine demand occurrence. Afterward, a distinct CNN model is employed to estimate the magnitude of the demand. This dual-phase approach improves forecasting accuracy in intermittent demands, specifically in predicting the non-demand (Zero-Demand). The suggested approach notably surpasses traditional forecasting techniques, including Croston&apos;s method, which is tailored for intermittent demand forecasting. It also outperforms other methods like XGboost, Random Forest, ETR, Prophet, and AutoArima, especially in predicting the lead time demand distribution for sporadic demands. The deployment of dual CNN models facilitates a deeper understanding of intermittent demand dynamics. This, in turn, enhances supply chain management effectiveness and efficiency, offering a robust solution to the complex challenges of intermittent demand forecasting.

Druh

J_SC - Článek v periodiku v databázi SCOPUS

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10201 - Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

S - Specificky vyzkum na vysokych skolach<br>I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2024

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

MENDEL

ISSN

1803-3814

e-ISSN

2571-3701

Svazek periodika

30

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

CZ - Česká republika

Počet stran výsledku

9

Strana od-do

51-59

Kód UT WoS článku

—

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-105002793923