Develepment and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F75010330%3A_____%2F20%3A00013308" target="_blank" >RIV/75010330:_____/20:00013308 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/41/35/3325/5917758" target="_blank" >https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/41/35/3325/5917758</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa571" target="_blank" >10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa571</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Develepment and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Aims Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model. Methods and results We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.25) in the validation cohort. Conclusion Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Develepment and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study

Popis výsledku anglicky

Aims Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model. Methods and results We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04-0.25) in the validation cohort. Conclusion Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

30304 - Public and environmental health

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

V - Vyzkumna aktivita podporovana z jinych verejnych zdroju

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

European Heart Journal

ISSN

0195-668X

e-ISSN

1522-9645

Svazek periodika

41

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

35

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

10

Strana od-do

3325-3333, 3333a

Kód UT WoS článku

000593360900011

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85092749623