Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F16%3A00464882" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/16:00464882 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00088628 RIV/62156489:43410/16:43909931 RIV/62156489:43210/16:43909931 RIV/00020699:_____/16:N0000052

Výsledek na webu

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420" target="_blank" >http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420" target="_blank" >10.3354/cr01420</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the CentralnEuropean region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on annumber of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affectnwater resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation modelsnsignificantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timingnof these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the lastn54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding ofnpresent and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including thenStandardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindexn(Z-index) and the Standardized PrecipitationEvapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their mostnadvanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatologicalnstations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% ofnthe evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 19612014nperiod except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying thenregions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station networknof 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this developmentnwas an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperaturesnand global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed dryingntrends were most pronounced during the AprilSeptember period and in lower elevations. Conversely,nthe majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both thensummer and winter (OctoberMarch) half-years.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

Popis výsledku anglicky

An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the CentralnEuropean region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on annumber of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affectnwater resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation modelsnsignificantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timingnof these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the lastn54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding ofnpresent and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including thenStandardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindexn(Z-index) and the Standardized PrecipitationEvapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their mostnadvanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatologicalnstations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% ofnthe evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 19612014nperiod except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying thenregions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station networknof 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this developmentnwas an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperaturesnand global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed dryingntrends were most pronounced during the AprilSeptember period and in lower elevations. Conversely,nthe majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both thensummer and winter (OctoberMarch) half-years.

Druh

J_x - Nezařazeno - Článek v odborném periodiku (Jimp, Jsc a Jost)

CEP obor

EH - Ekologie – společenstva

OECD FORD obor

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Projekt

Výsledek vznikl pri realizaci vícero projektů. Více informací v záložce Projekty.

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2016

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Research

ISSN

0936-577X

e-ISSN

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Svazek periodika

70

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

oct

Stát vydavatele periodika

DE - Spolková republika Německo

Počet stran výsledku

18

Strana od-do

143-160

Kód UT WoS článku

000388194400005

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

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