Urban Cycles and Long-Term Population Trends in a Southern European City: A Demographic Outlook

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F20%3A00520252" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/20:00520252 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12061-019-09328-0" target="_blank" >https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12061-019-09328-0</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12061-019-09328-0" target="_blank" >10.1007/s12061-019-09328-0</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Urban Cycles and Long-Term Population Trends in a Southern European City: A Demographic Outlook

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Metropolitan regions in Europe experienced intense demographic change from accelerated population expansion sustained by high fertility and immigration to zero (or negative) growth and aging. Such transformations are particularly complex in Southern Europe and lead to a shift from the impressive urban growth driven by industrialization to a more recent de-concentration of inner cities and scattered metropolitan expansion. Based on long-term population data, the present study assumes that urban expansion and demographic trends in Southern Europe no longer follow sequential phases of growth and decline, being characterized by non-linear urban expansion and distinctive demographic trends. Such hypothesis was tested considering a complete urban cycle and the associated population trends over a sufficiently long time interval (1848-2011) in metropolitan Athens, Greece. Population increase was assessed through the analysis of long-term census data made available on a district scale. Such analysis provided information on the spatial distribution of resident population and allowed identification of multiple expansion waves only partly aligned with predictions of the urban cycle model. The complex interplay between long-term fertility-mortality dynamics and short-term migration trends in Athens justifies deviations from model's predictions. A long-term analysis of population trends at local scale contributes to re-contextualize urban cycles within the (more general) debate on demographic transitions, evidencing together the multi-scalar influence of population dynamics on metropolitan expansion and the importance of a historical analysis of population growth from the beginning of the modern urban experience.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Urban Cycles and Long-Term Population Trends in a Southern European City: A Demographic Outlook

Popis výsledku anglicky

Metropolitan regions in Europe experienced intense demographic change from accelerated population expansion sustained by high fertility and immigration to zero (or negative) growth and aging. Such transformations are particularly complex in Southern Europe and lead to a shift from the impressive urban growth driven by industrialization to a more recent de-concentration of inner cities and scattered metropolitan expansion. Based on long-term population data, the present study assumes that urban expansion and demographic trends in Southern Europe no longer follow sequential phases of growth and decline, being characterized by non-linear urban expansion and distinctive demographic trends. Such hypothesis was tested considering a complete urban cycle and the associated population trends over a sufficiently long time interval (1848-2011) in metropolitan Athens, Greece. Population increase was assessed through the analysis of long-term census data made available on a district scale. Such analysis provided information on the spatial distribution of resident population and allowed identification of multiple expansion waves only partly aligned with predictions of the urban cycle model. The complex interplay between long-term fertility-mortality dynamics and short-term migration trends in Athens justifies deviations from model's predictions. A long-term analysis of population trends at local scale contributes to re-contextualize urban cycles within the (more general) debate on demographic transitions, evidencing together the multi-scalar influence of population dynamics on metropolitan expansion and the importance of a historical analysis of population growth from the beginning of the modern urban experience.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10511 - Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LO1415" target="_blank" >LO1415: CzechGlobe 2020 - Rozvoj Centra pro studium dopadů globální změny klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy

ISSN

1874-463X

e-ISSN

1874-4621

Svazek periodika

13

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

3

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

27

Strana od-do

777-803

Kód UT WoS článku

000504588900001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85077367311