An index-flood statistical model for hydrological drought assessment

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F20%3A00524622" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/20:00524622 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/60460709:41110/20:82323 RIV/60460709:41330/20:82323 RIV/00020711:_____/20:00005046

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/4/1213/htm" target="_blank" >https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/4/1213/htm</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/W12041213" target="_blank" >10.3390/W12041213</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

An index-flood statistical model for hydrological drought assessment

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Modelling of hydrological extremes and drought modelling in particular has received much attention over recent decades. The main aim of this study is to apply a statistical model for drought estimation (in this case deficit volume) using extreme value theory and the index-flood method and to reduce the uncertainties in estimation of drought event return levels. Deficit volumes for 133 catchments in the Czech Republic (1901-2015) were simulated by hydrological model BILAN. The validation of severity, intensity and length of simulated drought events revealed good match with the available observed data. To estimate return levels of the deficit volumes, it is assumed (in accord with the index-flood method), that the deficit volumes within a homogeneous region are identically distributed after scaling with a site-specific factor. The parameters of the scaled regional distribution are estimated using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit of the statistical model is assessed by Anderson-Darling test. For the estimation of critical values, sampling methods allowing for handling of years without drought were used. It is shown, that the index-flood model with a Generalized Pareto distribution performs well and substantially reduces the uncertainty related to the estimation of the shape parameter and of the large deficit volume quantiles.

Název v anglickém jazyce

An index-flood statistical model for hydrological drought assessment

Popis výsledku anglicky

Modelling of hydrological extremes and drought modelling in particular has received much attention over recent decades. The main aim of this study is to apply a statistical model for drought estimation (in this case deficit volume) using extreme value theory and the index-flood method and to reduce the uncertainties in estimation of drought event return levels. Deficit volumes for 133 catchments in the Czech Republic (1901-2015) were simulated by hydrological model BILAN. The validation of severity, intensity and length of simulated drought events revealed good match with the available observed data. To estimate return levels of the deficit volumes, it is assumed (in accord with the index-flood method), that the deficit volumes within a homogeneous region are identically distributed after scaling with a site-specific factor. The parameters of the scaled regional distribution are estimated using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit of the statistical model is assessed by Anderson-Darling test. For the estimation of critical values, sampling methods allowing for handling of years without drought were used. It is shown, that the index-flood model with a Generalized Pareto distribution performs well and substantially reduces the uncertainty related to the estimation of the shape parameter and of the large deficit volume quantiles.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10503 - Water resources

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/GC19-24089J" target="_blank" >GC19-24089J: XEROS: Extrémní evropská sucha - Vícemodelová syntéza minulých, současných a budoucích událostí</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Water

ISSN

2073-4441

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

12

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

4

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

1213

Kód UT WoS článku

000539527500290

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85085172010