Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F20%3A00524720" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/20:00524720 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228420" target="_blank" >https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228420</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228420" target="_blank" >10.1371/journal.pone.0228420</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Is the lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) likely to shortly become extinct in Europe?-Insights based on ecological niche modelling

Popis výsledku anglicky

Lady's-slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) is considered an endangered species in most countries within its geographical range. The main reason for the decline in the number of populations of this species in Europe is habitat destruction. In this paper the ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the effect of future climate change on the area of niches suitable for C. calceolus. Predictions of the extent of the potential range of this species in 2070 were made using climate projections obtained from the Community Climate System Model for four representative concentration pathways: rcp2.6, rcp4.5, rcp6.0 and rcp8.5. According to these analyses all the scenarios of future climate change will result in the total area of niches suitable for C. calceolus decreasing. Considering areas characterized by a suitability of at least 0.4 the loss of habitat will vary between ca. 30% and 63%. The highest habitat loss of ca. 63% is predicted to occur in scenario rcp 8.5. Surprisingly, in the most damaging rcp 8.5 prediction the highest overlap between potential range of C. calceolus and its pollinators will be observed and in all other scenarios some pollinators will be available for this species in various geographical regions. Based on these results at least two approaches should be implemented to improve the chances of survival of C. calceolus. In view of the unavoidable loss of suitable habitats in numerous European regions, conservation activities should be intensified in areas where this species will still have suitable niches in the next 50 years. In addition, for C. calceolus ex-situ activities should be greatly increased so that it can be re-introduced in the remaining suitable areas.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10611 - Plant sciences, botany

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/LO1415" target="_blank" >LO1415: CzechGlobe 2020 - Rozvoj Centra pro studium dopadů globální změny klimatu</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

PLoS ONE

ISSN

1932-6203

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

15

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

1

Stát vydavatele periodika

US - Spojené státy americké

Počet stran výsledku

21

Strana od-do

e0228420

Kód UT WoS článku

000534614600036

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85078718297