Extending the climatological concept of'Detection and Attribution' to global change ecology in the Anthropocene

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F20%3A00535256" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/20:00535256 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/00216224:14310/20:00117420

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13647" target="_blank" >https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13647</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13647" target="_blank" >10.1111/1365-2435.13647</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Extending the climatological concept of'Detection and Attribution' to global change ecology in the Anthropocene

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

Research into global change ecology is motivated by the need to understand the role of humans in changing biotic systems. Mechanistic understanding of ecological responses requires the separation of different climatic parameters and processes that often operate on diverse spatiotemporal scales. Yet most environmental studies do not distinguish the effects of internal climate variability from those caused by external, natural (e.g. volcanic, solar, orbital) or anthropogenic (e.g. greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols, land-use) forcing factors. We suggest extending the climatological concept of 'Detection and Attribution' (DA) to unravel abiotic drivers of ecological dynamics in the Anthropocene. We therefore apply DA to quantify the relative roles of natural versus industrial temperature change on elevational shifts in the outbreak epicentres of the larch budmoth (LBM, Zeiraphera dinianaorgriseana Gn.), the classic example of a cyclic forest defoliating insect. Our case study shows that anthropogenic warming shifts the epicentre of travelling LBM waves upward, which disrupts the intensity of population outbreaks that occurred regularly over the past millennium in the European Alps. Our findings demonstrate the ability of DA to detect ecological responses beyond internal system variability, to attribute them to specific external climate forcing factors and to identify climate-induced ecological tipping points. In order to implement the climatological concept of 'Detection and Attribution' successfully into modern global change ecology, future studies should combine high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions and state-of-the-art climate model simulations to inform inference-based ecosystem models. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Extending the climatological concept of'Detection and Attribution' to global change ecology in the Anthropocene

Popis výsledku anglicky

Research into global change ecology is motivated by the need to understand the role of humans in changing biotic systems. Mechanistic understanding of ecological responses requires the separation of different climatic parameters and processes that often operate on diverse spatiotemporal scales. Yet most environmental studies do not distinguish the effects of internal climate variability from those caused by external, natural (e.g. volcanic, solar, orbital) or anthropogenic (e.g. greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols, land-use) forcing factors. We suggest extending the climatological concept of 'Detection and Attribution' (DA) to unravel abiotic drivers of ecological dynamics in the Anthropocene. We therefore apply DA to quantify the relative roles of natural versus industrial temperature change on elevational shifts in the outbreak epicentres of the larch budmoth (LBM, Zeiraphera dinianaorgriseana Gn.), the classic example of a cyclic forest defoliating insect. Our case study shows that anthropogenic warming shifts the epicentre of travelling LBM waves upward, which disrupts the intensity of population outbreaks that occurred regularly over the past millennium in the European Alps. Our findings demonstrate the ability of DA to detect ecological responses beyond internal system variability, to attribute them to specific external climate forcing factors and to identify climate-induced ecological tipping points. In order to implement the climatological concept of 'Detection and Attribution' successfully into modern global change ecology, future studies should combine high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions and state-of-the-art climate model simulations to inform inference-based ecosystem models. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

10618 - Ecology

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2020

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Functional Ecology

ISSN

0269-8463

e-ISSN

—

Svazek periodika

34

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

12

Strana od-do

2270-2282

Kód UT WoS článku

000560502200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85089513766