Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F21%3A00549340" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/21:00549340 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/62156489:43210/21:43920484

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://click.endnote.com/viewer?doi=10.3390/agriculture11111029&route=7" target="_blank" >https://click.endnote.com/viewer?doi=10.3390/agriculture11111029&route=7</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11111029" target="_blank" >10.3390/agriculture11111029</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The quality, reliability, and uncertainty of Austrian climate projections (oKS15) and their impacts on the results of the crop model DSSAT for three different orographic and climatic agricultural regions in Austria were analyzed. Cultivar-specific grain yields of winter wheat, spring barley, and maize were simulated for different soil classes to address three main objectives. First, the uncertainties of simulated crop yields related to the oKS15 projections were analyzed under current climate conditions. The climate projections revealed that the case study regions with higher humidity levels generally had lower yield deviations than the drier regions (yield deviations from19% to +15%). Regarding the simulated crop types, spring barley was found to be less sensitive to the climate projections than rainfed maize, and the response was greater in regions with a low soil water storage capacity. The second objective was to simulate crop yields for the same cultivars using future climate projections. Winter wheat and spring barley tended to show increased yields by the end of the century due to an assumed CO2-fertilization effect in the range of 3-23%, especially under RCP 8.5. However, rainfed and irrigated maize were associated with up to 17% yield reductions in all three study regions due to a shortened growth period caused by warming. The third objective addressed the effects of crop model weather input data with different spatial resolutions (1 vs. 5, 11, and 21 km) on simulated crop yields using the climate projections. Irrigated grain maize and rainfed spring barley had the lowest simulated yield deviations between the spatial scales applied due to their better water supply conditions. The ranges of uncertainty revealed by the different analyses suggest that impact models should be tested with site representative conditions before being applied to develop site-specific adaptation options for Austrian crop production.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria

Popis výsledku anglicky

The quality, reliability, and uncertainty of Austrian climate projections (oKS15) and their impacts on the results of the crop model DSSAT for three different orographic and climatic agricultural regions in Austria were analyzed. Cultivar-specific grain yields of winter wheat, spring barley, and maize were simulated for different soil classes to address three main objectives. First, the uncertainties of simulated crop yields related to the oKS15 projections were analyzed under current climate conditions. The climate projections revealed that the case study regions with higher humidity levels generally had lower yield deviations than the drier regions (yield deviations from19% to +15%). Regarding the simulated crop types, spring barley was found to be less sensitive to the climate projections than rainfed maize, and the response was greater in regions with a low soil water storage capacity. The second objective was to simulate crop yields for the same cultivars using future climate projections. Winter wheat and spring barley tended to show increased yields by the end of the century due to an assumed CO2-fertilization effect in the range of 3-23%, especially under RCP 8.5. However, rainfed and irrigated maize were associated with up to 17% yield reductions in all three study regions due to a shortened growth period caused by warming. The third objective addressed the effects of crop model weather input data with different spatial resolutions (1 vs. 5, 11, and 21 km) on simulated crop yields using the climate projections. Irrigated grain maize and rainfed spring barley had the lowest simulated yield deviations between the spatial scales applied due to their better water supply conditions. The ranges of uncertainty revealed by the different analyses suggest that impact models should be tested with site representative conditions before being applied to develop site-specific adaptation options for Austrian crop production.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40101 - Agriculture

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

P - Projekt vyzkumu a vyvoje financovany z verejnych zdroju (s odkazem do CEP)

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Agriculture-Basel

ISSN

2077-0472

e-ISSN

2077-0472

Svazek periodika

11

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

11

Stát vydavatele periodika

CH - Švýcarská konfederace

Počet stran výsledku

39

Strana od-do

1029

Kód UT WoS článku

000723776200001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85118257627