Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F21%3A00570117" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/21:00570117 - isvavai.cz</a>

Nalezeny alternativní kódy

RIV/62156489:43210/21:43921843

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://mendelnet.cz/archive.php?secid=11&mag=mnt&vol=2021&no=1" target="_blank" >https://mendelnet.cz/archive.php?secid=11&mag=mnt&vol=2021&no=1</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

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Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

In recent years, investigating climate change impacts in the agricultural sector at the national level has become a priority for adaptation decision-making. Most of these studies quantify the impactsnof biophysical effects and often ignore the cross-sectoral interactions and economic effects on relative competitiveness, international trade, global food supply, and food prices for the Czech Republic. Ignoring future productivity changes globally under climate change scenarios can underestimate or overestimate climate change impacts at the national level. Here, we use GLOBIOM-CZE, a global economic model, as part of a climate change impact assessment framework to evaluate the impacts on the Czech agricultural sector in terms of environmental and economic indicators. By comparing with the baseline, the ensemble of scenarios suggests a decrease in crop area and production while increasing grassland, positively affecting livestock production by mid-century. Corn and barley show the most adverse response in production and area, while rapeseed increases under scenario RCP 8.5 with CO2 fertilization effect. Livestock products production is projected to increase, especially bovine meat and milk, as within RCP 8.5, no constraints are placed on growing greenhouse gas emissions.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic

Popis výsledku anglicky

In recent years, investigating climate change impacts in the agricultural sector at the national level has become a priority for adaptation decision-making. Most of these studies quantify the impactsnof biophysical effects and often ignore the cross-sectoral interactions and economic effects on relative competitiveness, international trade, global food supply, and food prices for the Czech Republic. Ignoring future productivity changes globally under climate change scenarios can underestimate or overestimate climate change impacts at the national level. Here, we use GLOBIOM-CZE, a global economic model, as part of a climate change impact assessment framework to evaluate the impacts on the Czech agricultural sector in terms of environmental and economic indicators. By comparing with the baseline, the ensemble of scenarios suggests a decrease in crop area and production while increasing grassland, positively affecting livestock production by mid-century. Corn and barley show the most adverse response in production and area, while rapeseed increases under scenario RCP 8.5 with CO2 fertilization effect. Livestock products production is projected to increase, especially bovine meat and milk, as within RCP 8.5, no constraints are placed on growing greenhouse gas emissions.

Druh

D - Stať ve sborníku

CEP obor

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OECD FORD obor

40101 - Agriculture

Projekt

<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2021

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název statě ve sborníku

MendelNet 2021: Proceedings of 28th International PhD Students Conference

ISBN

978-80-7509-821-4

ISSN

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e-ISSN

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Počet stran výsledku

6

Strana od-do

236-241

Název nakladatele

Mendel University in Brno

Místo vydání

Brno

Místo konání akce

Brno

Datum konání akce

10. 11. 2021

Typ akce podle státní příslušnosti

WRD - Celosvětová akce

Kód UT WoS článku

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