Improving the simulation of permanent grasslands across Germany by using multi-objective uncertainty-based calibration of plant-water dynamics

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F22%3A00557268" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/22:00557268 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030122000120" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030122000120</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2022.126464" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.eja.2022.126464</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Improving the simulation of permanent grasslands across Germany by using multi-objective uncertainty-based calibration of plant-water dynamics

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The dynamics of grassland ecosystems are highly complex due to multifaceted interactions among their soil, water, and vegetation components. Precise simulations of grassland productivity therefore rely on accurately estimating a variety of parameters that characterize different processes of these systems. This study applied three calibration schemes a Single-Objective (SO-SUFI2), a Multi-Objective Pareto (MO-Pareto), and, a novel Uncertainty-Based Multi-Objective (MO-SUFI2) to estimate the parameters of MONICA (Model for Nitrogen and Carbon Simulation) agro-ecosystem model in grassland ecosystems across Germany. The MO-Pareto model is based on a traditional Pareto optimality concept, while the MO-SUFI2 optimizes multiple target variables considering their level of prediction uncertainty. We used measurements of leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and soil moisture from experimental data at five sites with different intensities of cutting regimes (from two to five cutting events per season) to evaluate model performance. Both MO-Pareto and MO-SUFI2 outperformed SO-SUFI2 during calibration and validation. The comparison of the two MO approaches shows that they do not necessarily conflict with each other, but MO-SUFI2 provides complementary information for better estimations of model parameter uncertainty. We used the obtained parameter ranges to simulate grassland productivity across Germany under different cutting regimes and quantified the uncertainty associated with estimated productivity across regions. The results showed higher uncertainty in intensively managed grasslands compared to extensively managed grasslands, partially due to a lack of high-resolution input information concerning cutting dates. Furthermore, the additional information on the quantified uncertainty provided by our proposed MO-SUFI2 method adds deeper insights on confidence levels of estimated productivity. Benefiting from additional management data collected at high resolution and ground measurements on the composition of grassland species mixtures appear to be promising solutions to reduce uncertainty and increase model reliability.

Název v anglickém jazyce

Improving the simulation of permanent grasslands across Germany by using multi-objective uncertainty-based calibration of plant-water dynamics

Popis výsledku anglicky

The dynamics of grassland ecosystems are highly complex due to multifaceted interactions among their soil, water, and vegetation components. Precise simulations of grassland productivity therefore rely on accurately estimating a variety of parameters that characterize different processes of these systems. This study applied three calibration schemes a Single-Objective (SO-SUFI2), a Multi-Objective Pareto (MO-Pareto), and, a novel Uncertainty-Based Multi-Objective (MO-SUFI2) to estimate the parameters of MONICA (Model for Nitrogen and Carbon Simulation) agro-ecosystem model in grassland ecosystems across Germany. The MO-Pareto model is based on a traditional Pareto optimality concept, while the MO-SUFI2 optimizes multiple target variables considering their level of prediction uncertainty. We used measurements of leaf area index, aboveground biomass, and soil moisture from experimental data at five sites with different intensities of cutting regimes (from two to five cutting events per season) to evaluate model performance. Both MO-Pareto and MO-SUFI2 outperformed SO-SUFI2 during calibration and validation. The comparison of the two MO approaches shows that they do not necessarily conflict with each other, but MO-SUFI2 provides complementary information for better estimations of model parameter uncertainty. We used the obtained parameter ranges to simulate grassland productivity across Germany under different cutting regimes and quantified the uncertainty associated with estimated productivity across regions. The results showed higher uncertainty in intensively managed grasslands compared to extensively managed grasslands, partially due to a lack of high-resolution input information concerning cutting dates. Furthermore, the additional information on the quantified uncertainty provided by our proposed MO-SUFI2 method adds deeper insights on confidence levels of estimated productivity. Benefiting from additional management data collected at high resolution and ground measurements on the composition of grassland species mixtures appear to be promising solutions to reduce uncertainty and increase model reliability.

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

40101 - Agriculture

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2022

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

European Journal of Agronomy

ISSN

1161-0301

e-ISSN

1873-7331

Svazek periodika

134

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

MAR

Stát vydavatele periodika

GB - Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska

Počet stran výsledku

17

Strana od-do

126464

Kód UT WoS článku

000784446200004

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85123617881