Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways

Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI

<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00572438" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00572438 - isvavai.cz</a>

Výsledek na webu

<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096323000323?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096323000323?via%3Dihub</a>

DOI - Digital Object Identifier

<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100506" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.crm.2023.100506</a>

Jazyk výsledku

angličtina

Název v původním jazyce

Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways

Popis výsledku v původním jazyce

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed as a framework for exploring alternative futures with challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Whilst origi-nally developed at the global scale, the SSPs have been increasingly interpreted at the national scale in order to inform national level climate change policy and impact assessments, including mitigation and adaptation actions. Here, we present a set of quantitative SSP scenario projections, based on narratives and semi-quantitative trends, for the UK (the UK-SSPs) for a wide range of sectors that are relevant to the UK climate research, policy and business communities. We show that a mixed-methods approach that combines computational modelling with an interpretation of stakeholder storylines and empirical data is an effective way of generating a comprehensive range of quantitative indicators across sectors and geographic areas in a specific national context. The global SSP assumptions of low challenges to climate adaptation lead to similar socioeconomic outcomes in UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP5, although based on very different dynamics and underlying drivers. Convergence was also identified in indicators related to more efficient natural resource use in the scenarios with low challenges to climate change mitigation (UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP4). Alternatively, societal inequality played a strong role in scenarios with high challenges to adaptation leading to convergence in indicator trends (UK-SSP3 and UK-SSP4).

Název v anglickém jazyce

Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways

Popis výsledku anglicky

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed as a framework for exploring alternative futures with challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Whilst origi-nally developed at the global scale, the SSPs have been increasingly interpreted at the national scale in order to inform national level climate change policy and impact assessments, including mitigation and adaptation actions. Here, we present a set of quantitative SSP scenario projections, based on narratives and semi-quantitative trends, for the UK (the UK-SSPs) for a wide range of sectors that are relevant to the UK climate research, policy and business communities. We show that a mixed-methods approach that combines computational modelling with an interpretation of stakeholder storylines and empirical data is an effective way of generating a comprehensive range of quantitative indicators across sectors and geographic areas in a specific national context. The global SSP assumptions of low challenges to climate adaptation lead to similar socioeconomic outcomes in UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP5, although based on very different dynamics and underlying drivers. Convergence was also identified in indicators related to more efficient natural resource use in the scenarios with low challenges to climate change mitigation (UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP4). Alternatively, societal inequality played a strong role in scenarios with high challenges to adaptation leading to convergence in indicator trends (UK-SSP3 and UK-SSP4).

Druh

J_imp - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science

CEP obor

—

OECD FORD obor

50704 - Environmental sciences (social aspects)

Projekt

—

Návaznosti

I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace

Rok uplatnění

2023

Kód důvěrnosti údajů

S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů

Název periodika

Climate Risk Management

ISSN

2212-0963

e-ISSN

2212-0963

Svazek periodika

40

Číslo periodika v rámci svazku

APR

Stát vydavatele periodika

NL - Nizozemsko

Počet stran výsledku

11

Strana od-do

100506

Kód UT WoS článku

000983180500001

EID výsledku v databázi Scopus

2-s2.0-85153503564