Crop yield anomaly forecasting in the Pannonian basin using gradient boosting and its performance in years of severe drought
Identifikátory výsledku
Kód výsledku v IS VaVaI
<a href="https://www.isvavai.cz/riv?ss=detail&h=RIV%2F86652079%3A_____%2F23%3A00575101" target="_blank" >RIV/86652079:_____/23:00575101 - isvavai.cz</a>
Výsledek na webu
<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192323002873?via%3Dihub" target="_blank" >https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192323002873?via%3Dihub</a>
DOI - Digital Object Identifier
<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109596" target="_blank" >10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109596</a>
Alternativní jazyky
Jazyk výsledku
angličtina
Název v původním jazyce
Crop yield anomaly forecasting in the Pannonian basin using gradient boosting and its performance in years of severe drought
Popis výsledku v původním jazyce
The increasing frequency and intensity of severe droughts over recent decades have led to substantial crop yield losses in the Pannonian Basin in southeastern Europe. Their socioeconomic consequences can be minimized by accurate crop yield forecasts, but such forecasts often underestimate the impact of severe droughts on crop yields. We developed a gradient-boosting-based crop yield anomaly forecasting system for the Pannonian Basin and examined its performance, with a focus on drought years. Winter wheat and maize yield anomalies are forecasted for 42 regions in the Pannonian Basin using predictor datasets from Earth observation and reanalysis describing vegetation state, weather, and soil moisture conditions. Our results show that crop yield anomaly estimates in the two months preceding harvest have better performance (maize errors 14-17%, wheat 13-14%) than earlier in the year (maize errors 21%, wheat 17%). The forecast models can satisfactorily capture the interannual yield anomalies, but spatial yield variability is only partially reproduced. In years of severe drought, the wheat model performs better than under average conditions with errors below 12%. The errors of the maize forecasts in drought years are larger than average forecast skill: 31% two months ahead and 20% one month ahead. However, for both crops the yield losses remain underestimated by the forecasts in severe drought years. The feature importance analysis shows that during the last two months before harvest, wheat yield anomalies are controlled by temperature and evaporation and maize by the combined effects of temperature and water availability as expressed by several drought indices. In severe drought years, during the two months before harvest the seasonal temperature forecast becomes the most important predictor for the wheat forecasts and soil moisture for the maize model. Overall, this study provides indepth insights into the impact of droughts on crop yield forecasts in the Pannonian Basin.
Název v anglickém jazyce
Crop yield anomaly forecasting in the Pannonian basin using gradient boosting and its performance in years of severe drought
Popis výsledku anglicky
The increasing frequency and intensity of severe droughts over recent decades have led to substantial crop yield losses in the Pannonian Basin in southeastern Europe. Their socioeconomic consequences can be minimized by accurate crop yield forecasts, but such forecasts often underestimate the impact of severe droughts on crop yields. We developed a gradient-boosting-based crop yield anomaly forecasting system for the Pannonian Basin and examined its performance, with a focus on drought years. Winter wheat and maize yield anomalies are forecasted for 42 regions in the Pannonian Basin using predictor datasets from Earth observation and reanalysis describing vegetation state, weather, and soil moisture conditions. Our results show that crop yield anomaly estimates in the two months preceding harvest have better performance (maize errors 14-17%, wheat 13-14%) than earlier in the year (maize errors 21%, wheat 17%). The forecast models can satisfactorily capture the interannual yield anomalies, but spatial yield variability is only partially reproduced. In years of severe drought, the wheat model performs better than under average conditions with errors below 12%. The errors of the maize forecasts in drought years are larger than average forecast skill: 31% two months ahead and 20% one month ahead. However, for both crops the yield losses remain underestimated by the forecasts in severe drought years. The feature importance analysis shows that during the last two months before harvest, wheat yield anomalies are controlled by temperature and evaporation and maize by the combined effects of temperature and water availability as expressed by several drought indices. In severe drought years, during the two months before harvest the seasonal temperature forecast becomes the most important predictor for the wheat forecasts and soil moisture for the maize model. Overall, this study provides indepth insights into the impact of droughts on crop yield forecasts in the Pannonian Basin.
Klasifikace
Druh
J<sub>imp</sub> - Článek v periodiku v databázi Web of Science
CEP obor
—
OECD FORD obor
10509 - Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Návaznosti výsledku
Projekt
<a href="/cs/project/EF16_019%2F0000797" target="_blank" >EF16_019/0000797: SustES - Adaptační strategie pro udržitelnost ekosystémových služeb a potravinové bezpečnosti v nepříznivých přírodních podmínkách</a><br>
Návaznosti
I - Institucionalni podpora na dlouhodoby koncepcni rozvoj vyzkumne organizace
Ostatní
Rok uplatnění
2023
Kód důvěrnosti údajů
S - Úplné a pravdivé údaje o projektu nepodléhají ochraně podle zvláštních právních předpisů
Údaje specifické pro druh výsledku
Název periodika
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
ISSN
0168-1923
e-ISSN
1873-2240
Svazek periodika
340
Číslo periodika v rámci svazku
SEP
Stát vydavatele periodika
NL - Nizozemsko
Počet stran výsledku
16
Strana od-do
109596
Kód UT WoS článku
001044625800001
EID výsledku v databázi Scopus
2-s2.0-85166640748